March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on Feb. 27

Just two weeks are left in the college basketball regular season. How does the NCAA Tournament bubble look entering play today?

North Carolina v Virginia
North Carolina v Virginia / Ryan M. Kelly/GettyImages
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Bubble Watch Awards

Biggest Bubble Win: Wake Forest Vs. Duke

No one picked up a bigger win than the Demon Deacons, who had a solid resume but lacked that signature victory to prove they could beat a top team in the NCAA Tournament. Saturday's win over Duke gives that to Wake Forest, which is playing well and can further solidify their position by taking care of business against Notre Dame and Virginia Tech this week.

Worst Bubble Loss: New Mexico Vs. Air Force

If you are on the bubble, you can't afford to drop a home game to a team that entered the matchup with an 8-17 record. That is exactly what New Mexico did against Air Force, which had won just one Mountain West game before stunning the Lobos in The Pit, adding an anchor of a Quad 4 loss to their resume in a league where danger lurks around every turn.

Biggest Bubble Opportunity: Seton Hall

The Pirates have put themselves into a strong position to make the field and also get the benefit of two massive Quad 1 opportunities this week with a trip to No. 12 Creighton and No. 3 UCONN. No one would fault them for losing both games, especially since they already beat the Huskies by 15 at home, but finding a way to secure a split would be massive for their chances of avoiding the First Four entirely.

Bubble Team In Danger: Virginia

A deep dive into Virginia's resume shows there isn't a ton to be impressed with as their three Quad 1 wins (Florida on a neutral floor, at Clemson, Wake Forest) have come by a combined six points. The Cavaliers flunk the eye test and their metrics have taken a hit with some shaky ACC losses, meaning that they might need the ACC's auto bid if they can't find a way to win at Duke on Saturday, which is an unenviable position to be in.

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