March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on March 15
Champ Week has seen a lot of chaos thus far with plenty of upsets and a guaranteed bid thief in the Atlantic 10, which is bad news for teams on the bubble. Another bubble spot could disappear if Florida Atlantic gets upset in the American, so teams who are still playing games need to stack up as many wins as possible to feel good about their position entering Selection Sunday or improve their own case to dance.
How has the bubble changed over the past three days? Read on for a look at an updated Bubble Watch ahead of the last three days of Champ Week.
Note: All records, NET Rankings and KenPom Strength of Schedule metrics are current through games played on March 14. The top seed remaining in each conference tournament is projected to enter the field so those teams are not eligible for bubble watch.
March Madness Bubble Watch: Last Four Byes
Team | Michigan State | TCU | St. John's | Colorado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | Big 12 | Big East | Pac-12 |
Record | 19-13 (10-10) | 21-12 (9-9) | 20-12 (11-9) | 23-9 (13-7) |
NET | 24 | 42 | 32 | 26 |
Quad 1 Record | 3-8 | 5-11 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
Quad 2 Record | 6-5 | 3-1 | 7-2 | 7-4 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 10-0 | 13-0 | 10-1 | 14-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 12 | 41 | 38 | 79 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 76 | 357 | 146 | 246 |
Last Game | W 77-67 Vs. Minnesota | L 60-45 Vs. No. 1 Houston | W 91-72 Vs. Seton Hall | W 72-58 Vs. Utah |
Next Game | Vs. No. 3 Purdue 3/15 | N/A | Vs. No. 2 UCONN 3/15 | Vs. No. 22 Washington State 3/15 |
The Spartans got the win they had to on Thursday by beating Minnesota to avoid adding a bad loss to their resume. Playing Purdue won't hurt Michigan State, which already has strong metrics and schedule figures, but a win would put them back in play for a 9-seed.
Taking care of Oklahoma was imperative for TCU, which had to separate itself from the Sooners on the bubble, but putting up 45 points in 40 minutes against Houston was not a good look. The Horned Frogs should be safe but their pitiful non-conference strength of schedule means they may slip a bit lower than most pundits believe.
The surge continued for St. John's, which beat Seton Hall to escape Dayton and guarantee a shot at UCONN on Friday night. A win there would be gravy for the Red Storm but Rick Pitino's team has finally gotten hot at the right time.
Another surging team is Colorado, which added its seventh straight win by taking out fellow bubbler Utah at the Pac-12 Tournament. The Buffaloes are currently the last team set to miss Dayton but finding a way to win over Washington State would ensure they avoid the First Four.