March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on March 5

The college basketball regular season is set to conclude this week. How is the NCAA Tournament bubble looking with less than two weeks until Selection Sunday?

Virginia v Duke
Virginia v Duke / Lance King/GettyImages
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March Madness Bubble Watch: Last Four In

Team

Seton Hall

New Mexico

Wake Forest

St. John's

Conference

Big East

Mountain West

ACC

Big East

Record

18-11 (11-7)

21-8 (9-7)

18-11 (10-8)

17-12 (9-9)

NET

68

28

31

38

Quad 1 Record

5-7

2-5

1-6

5-9

Quad 2 Record

3-3

3-1

6-5

4-2

Quad 3/4 Record

10-1

15-2

11-0

8-1

Strength of Schedule

24

86

62

17

Non-Conference Strength of Schedule

65

202

252

162

Last Game

L 91-61 At No. 3 UCONN

L 89-79 At Boise State

L 87-76 At Virginia Tech

W 82-59 At Butler

Next Game

Vs. Villanova 3/6

Vs. Fresno State 3/6

Vs. Georgia Tech 3/5

At DePaul 3/5

Blowout losses to UConn and Creighton last week really dinged Seton Hall's NET, which dropped seven spots week-to-week but their collection of five Quad 1 wins and strong schedule metrics keep the Pirates in the field as of now. Beating Villanova on Wednesday would be well-advised since their final game against DePaul won't be of any value to their resume.

New Mexico would be the Mountain West's sixth team but the Lobos continued their downward spiral with a 10-point loss at Boise State last week. A relatively middle-of-the-pack non-conference schedule leaves little margin of error for New Mexico, which has to beat Fresno State at home to avoid a third loss below Quad 2 and remain on the right side of the cut line.

Fewer teams had a more disastrous week than Wake Forest, which lost at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech to squander the momentum of their win over Duke. Sweeping Georgia Tech and Clemson at home this week is a must to avoid needing to have to do work at the ACC Tournament to secure their safety.

The biggest beneficiary of Villanova's rise is St. John's, which sees its sweep of Villanova move to a pair of Quad 1 wins, giving the Red Storm five on the year. Sweeping Georgetown and DePaul this week should give Rick Pitino's team a solid cushion to lock up a bid at the Big East Tournament with at least one win there.