March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: Last Four In, First Four Out, more on Feb. 20
The bubble debate is always fascinating because there isn't a true set criteria for how the NCAA Tournament's Selection Committee picks the 36 at-large teams each year. Factors such as strength of schedule, the NET ranking, Quad 1 wins, and home vs. road wins can be the differentiators in a given year depending on the preferences of the committee.
Saturday's Top 16 seed reveal put a big emphasis on Quad 1 wins, which is good news for the Mountain West, which can stack up a bunch of teams with them, and bad news for middling teams in underachieving leagues like the ACC. How has that impacted the bubble watch from this time last week? Read on to find out.
Note: Records and NET Rankings are current as of Feb. 20. Teams currently leading their conferences are not eligible for Bubble Watch.
March Madness Bubble Watch: Last Four Byes
Team | Conference | Record | NET | Last Game | This Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia | ACC | 20-7 (11-5) | 50 | L 75-41 At Virginia Tech | Vs. No. 10 North Carolina 2/24 |
Texas A&M | SEC | 15-10 (6-6) | 45 | L 100-75 At No. 15 Alabama | Vs. Arkansas 2/20 |
Nevada | Mountain West | 20-6 (7-5) | 43 | W 69-66 At UNLV | Vs. Wyoming 2/20 |
Gonzaga | WCC | 20-6 (10-2) | 23 | W 102-76 Vs. Pacific | At Portland 2/22 |
Getting blown out at Virginia Tech was a bad loss for Virginia, which has now dropped two of its past three games and still has that ugly Quad 3 loss against Notre Dame hanging on its ledger. Saturday's game against North Carolina is a huge opportunity for the Cavaliers to stop their spiral toward the cut line.
Texas A&M has a strong 6-5 mark in Quad 1 games, which is going to impress the committee, but last week's one-point loss at Vanderbilt added a fourth Quad 3 loss to the Aggies' resume. Taking care of business against Arkansas at home is a must before Texas A&M gets a shot at Tennessee on Saturday to add another marquee win to their ledger.
The Mountain West's strong season will lift the boat of Nevada, which has five Quad 1 wins and only two defeats outside of the top two quadrants. This week will be about loss avoidance for the Wolf Pack, who have little to gain with games against Wyoming and San Jose State but plenty to lose given their position in the field.
It was good to see Gonzaga consolidate its big win over Kentucky with a two-win week to move out of Dayton. The Bulldogs' light 1-5 mark in Quad 1 games is not ideal but they have to take care of two bottom-tier WCC foes this week before getting cracks at San Francisco and Saint Mary's next week.