March Madness bracket 2024: Why each of the 68 teams won't win a national championship
9. Clemson Tigers
Clemson did some special things this season. The Tigers won for just the second time ever in Chapel Hill, and they also notched early-season wins against fellow NCAA Tournament teams UAB, Alabama, and TCU. They also lost by just one at Cameron Indoor Stadium (on a controversial call, no less), which nearly gave them road wins against Carolina and Duke, a feat that is incredibly rare for any team to pull off. Clemson's history, though, both long-term and recent, is working against its championship prospects. Clemson has never reached a Final Four, and the program's only Elite Eight came back in 1980. Brad Brownell's team also limped to the finish line, losing three of four to non-tournament teams Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Boston College, the latter of which was a 21-point thumping that doesn't inspire confidence. A first-round match against underseeded New Mexico could be enough to send the Tigers packing, and if not, Baylor and Arizona will likely prove too much in the following rounds.
10. Colgate Raiders
Life is hard for a 14-seed in the NCAA Tournament. 14-seeds are 22-130 all-time against 3-seeds, and only two have ever reached the Sweet Sixteen. Even that hasn't happened in 27 years. The Raiders have now reached five NCAA Tournaments in a row (twice before as a 14-seed), and they have yet to win one. There is a glimmer of hope, as their first-round opponent, Baylor, lost to a 14-seed in 2015 (on an amazing Georgia State buzzer-beater), but the Bears offense is just going to be too much for Colgate. Even if somehow the Raiders can put on Cinderella's slipper, Arizona, who beat them by 27 back in December will probably be waiting to turn their carriage into a pumpkin.
11. Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado nearly ran the table to win the Pac-12 Tournament, but the committee wasn't impressed, as they still put the Buffs in the play-in game. Tad Boyle has built a team founded on toughness, but his team's first two games are against opponents that are very comfortable getting in a rock fight. All three of Colorado, Boise State, and Florida are among the best rebounding teams in the country, meaning that even if the Buffaloes can reach the round of 32, they'll be battered and bruised by the time they face Marquette, who should have All-American Tyler Kolek back by then. Colorado hasn't been able to contain elite teams this year, as a pair of blowout losses to Arizona (including one by 47 points!) shows. Marquette is in that same class, and even with a disadvantage on the glass, should make quick work of the Buffs.
12. Colorado State Rams
Like their in-state rivals from Boulder, Colorado State would be defying history by going from the play-in to the national title. Though there are examples of teams making deep runs after playing in Dayton (VCU and UCLA have each gone from the First Four to the Final Four), no team has ever reached the title game, let alone won it. Colorado State is a solid team across the board, and they assist on almost two-thirds of their baskets, the second-best rate in the country. The Rams also have quality wins, including a 21-point thumping of Creighton on a neutral court. They may have peaked too early, though, as they're only 5-5 in their last 10 games. To win it all, they'll need to win seven straight, and nothing they've shown in the last month gives any indication that they can do that.
13. Creighton Bluejays
Creighton is very good, but they're a funny team. Maybe no team in the country sticks to their style more devotedly than Greg McDermott's Bluejays, and here's why. Creighton does not grab offensive rebounds, but they also don't let other teams get them. They don't get to the free throw line themselves, but they also foul less than any other team in the country. They don't turn the ball over, but they also don't force turnovers. The end result is that Creighton's games come down to who shoots the ball better, and more often than not, the combination of Ryan Kalkbrenner, Baylor Scheierman, and Trey Alexander is enough to get the win. In the NCAA Tournament, though, you're going to face teams that get hot, and outside of shooting the lights out themselves, Creighton doesn't have a way to overcome that. They also shoot threes more often than nearly any team in the country, and when you get in these big domes, history has shown that outside shooting percentages come down.
14. Dayton Flyers
No team has ever lost in the quarterfinals of its conference tournament and gone on to win a national championship. That's a problem for Dayton, who despite going 14-4 in conference, was knocked out by 10-8 Duquesne in the quarters of the A-10 Tournament. The Flyers shoot lights out from three, but they can be beaten when their shots aren't dropping, such as when they shot 4-18 in a November loss to Houston or 4-17 in a February loss to VCU. Other than Duquesne (who wouldn't be in the tournament if not for Dayton losing to them last week), the Flyers haven't beaten a tournament team other than Grambling, Oakland, and Longwood, and those are three of the weakest teams in the field of 68.
15. Drake Bulldogs
Drake is not a team to be overlooked when the tournament kicks off this week. The Bulldogs are led by Tucker DeVries, son of head coach Darian DeVries, and he won his second straight Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year award two weeks ago. Drake is capable of beating anybody, and they earned their tournament invite by beating the best Indiana State team since Larry Bird was still in school in the MVC Tournament finals. There's just one issue: the Bulldogs will need to beat the hottest teams in the country just to get to the Final Four. A first-round game against Washington State, who finished second in the Pac-12 and beat Arizona twice, will be no cupcake, but future possible dates with Iowa State, Illinois, and either UConn or Auburn would represent the most difficult road any team has ever taken to win a region.
16. Duke Blue Devils
As one of college basketball's blue bloods, the Blue Devils need to be taken seriously whenever their name appears in the bracket. Duke has held a top-15 ranking throughout the season, and in Kyle Filipowski, they have one of the most versatile frontcourt players in the country. Despite the name on the jersey, though, the Blue Devils have never felt like national championship material. They lost both games to the hated Tar Heels, and other than a neutral court win over Baylor three months ago, don't possess a single signature win (and no, beating an uninspiring Virginia team doesn't count).
17. Duquesne Dukes
Duquesne is one of the feel-good stories of the tournament, having made the field for the first time since 1977. The Dukes have gotten hot at the right time, winning eight straight, but even with their new lease on life, the underlying metrics aren't kind. Offensively, Duquesne is mediocre at best, and unlike most teams in the field, they don't have one area to hang their hat on. They don't shoot the three particularly well, and they're arguably worse from two and the free throw line. They also have issues with protecting the ball, and they're not particularly good at offensive rebounding either. Maybe the Dukes can continue their magical run for a game or two, but eventually, their play will revert to the mean.
18. Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic was one of the most incredible stories of the tournament last year. Led by Johnell Davis and Vlad Goldin, the Owls turned a 9-seed into a Final Four berth. Both stars are back, and they'll be trying to do the same thing this time around as an 8-seed. FAU earned everything they got last year, but they were a bit fortunate in drawing 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the second round instead of 1-seed Purdue. That's not going to happen this year, as defending champ UConn looms if the Owls get by Northwestern. At 28-7, FAU is not as dominant as they were last year when they entered the Big Dance at 31-3. They're also not going to sneak up on anybody. Let's see how they handle being the hunted instead of the hunter.