March Madness bracket 2024: Why each of the 68 teams won't win a national championship
39. Nebraska Cornhuskers
It might seem harsh to indict a team for the past sins of its conference, but I can't get over the fact that the Big Ten hasn't won a national championship since 2000 when Mateen Cleaves, Jason Richardson, and Morris Peterson led Michigan State to the title. Is Nebraska of all teams going to be the one to break that 24-year streak? Fred Hoiberg has done a tremendous job in leading the Cornhuskers to a third-place Big Ten finish, but even with his best teams at Iowa State, he's never done better than a single Sweet Sixteen appearance. Nebraska does boast a win over top-ranked Purdue, but its inability to rebound the ball could haunt them against Texas A&M, the best offensive rebounding team in the country, in the first round.
40. Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada had a great season, finishing 13-5 in the highly underrated Mountain West. Like some teams we've mentioned previously, though, the Wolf Pack got unceremoniously dumped in the conference tournament quarterfinals, which historically rules them out from the jump. In what will come as no surprise to anyone who remembers Steve Alford's sharpshooting days at Indiana, the head coach has molded a team in his image. Nevada has four players that shoot 39% or better from three, and seniors Jarod Lucas and Keenan Blackshear are quite adept at getting to the free throw line. When their deep shots aren't falling, though, Nevada can be beaten, as six of their seven losses saw them shoot 33% or worse from the outside.
41. New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos may be just an 11-seed, but they have major sleeper potential. They're a balanced team that ranks in the top 40 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency, and they've yet to lose a game on a neutral court this season. They love to push the pace, and they aren't overly reliant on the three. What could keep them from a deep run then? For one thing, being an 11-seed isn't exactly a favorable position to be in, and New Mexico faces a stacked road just to make the Final Four, with Baylor, Arizona, and either UNC, Alabama, or Saint Mary's (who beat the Lobos 72-58 back in November) standing in their way. They seem to have figured things out after a 4-6 finish to the regular season, but they'll also have to overcome the Mountain West's traditionally poor performance in March. Until San Diego State reached the national championship last year, no Mountain West team had ever advanced beyond the Sweet Sixteen.
42. North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels have put last year's disappointment behind them, earning the 18th 1-seed in program history, which is the most all-time. Carolina is one of the most experienced teams in the country, and in RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, they have two players who helped carry them to the cusp of a title two years ago. There's reason for concern, though. Other than two wins against Duke (who the Heels own now and forevermore after throwing a bucket of cold water on Coach K's final season celebration in 2022) and a home win over Tennessee, Carolina struggled against elite competition, trailing for nearly the entirety of their losses to UConn and Kentucky earlier in the season. Losses to Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Syracuse showed that the Heels don't always bring their A-game, and their ACC Tournament final defeat to rival (yes, rival) NC State featured alarming disappearances from everyone not named Davis or Bacot. Even if Carolina keeps advancing, a possible Elite Eight showdown with Arizona and Caleb Love looms, and the former Tar Heel seems like the last player you'd want to face when he has revenge, whether real or imagined, on his mind.
43. Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern is one of the few teams in the field that is capable of beating anybody (see its win over Purdue), or losing to anyone (see its loss to Chicago State). The Wildcats play a high-variance style that sees them make a ton of 3's but also give up nearly as many. In a difficult draw against defending Final Four participant Florida Atlantic, Northwestern's rebounding deficiency and inability to defend without fouling could kill them, and if it doesn't, it almost certainly will against UConn in the next round.
44. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Oakland tested themselves in their non-conference slate, squaring up against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Michigan State, and Dayton. The Grizzlies didn't win any of those games, but they did hang tough in most of them. They haven't seen a team that can score like Kentucky, their first-round opponent, though. The Wildcats have an embarrassment of scoring riches in Antonio Reeves, Reed Sheppard, and Rob Dillingham, and Oakland, who prefers to play at a much slower pace, will struggle to keep up. The Grizz also lack size, with only one player over 6'6" that gets any minutes. Part of me wants to see them beat Kentucky and match up with NC State's half-man, half-truck DJ Burns in the second round, but I don't know how many paramedics are kept on-hand in Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena.
45. Oregon Ducks
After winning the final Pac-12 Tournament, the Ducks may be a popular sleeper pick when people fill out their brackets. Oregon has overcome numerous injuries this year and is clearly peaking at the right time, but a title run for Dana Altman's crew seems a bit far-fetched. No 11-seed has ever won it all, and the Ducks don't have any part of their resume that stands out as championship-worthy. They're an average shooting team, they play average defense, and they play at an average pace. That was enough for them to win the conference tournament in a pretty down year for the Pac-12, but it won't get them far against the likes of Creighton and Tennessee.
46. Purdue Boilermakers
It's been fascinating to watch every college basketball analyst compare Purdue to the Virginia team that infamously lost to a 16-seed and then won the national title a year later. Go ahead and trust the Boilermakers in March, but as for me, I won't be making the same mistake. Last year's loss to Fairleigh Dickinson wasn't an anomaly for Matt Painter's team, it's the norm. The Boilermakers have been eliminated each of the past three seasons by a team seeded 13th or worse, so to expect them to suddenly figure it out and storm through the tournament is a fool's errand. Purdue tightens up late in games that matter, as we just saw in their overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, a game they could have and should have won. Don't trust a team that has shown its true colors every year around this time.
47. Saint Mary's Gaels
No team went from looking so bad in the early part of the season to finishing so strong as Saint Mary's. Randy Bennett and company lost five of six games in November, but have since won 23 of 25, including taking two of three from longtime antagonist Gonzaga. Like the Gaels, the Zags are a 5-seed, and they're the best team Saint Mary's has beaten this year. How will they fare against truly elite competition? We just don't know, and with potential matchups against Alabama, North Carolina, and Arizona on tap, we may get an answer that Saint Mary's won't like. Last year's Gaels had a very similar statistical profile to this one, and they lost handily to eventual national champ UConn in the second round.
48. Saint Peter's Peacocks
It's great to see Saint Peter's back in the dance after their historic Cinderella run in 2022. The Peacocks are back in a familiar position as a 15-seed, but Doug Edert and his mustache are not walking through that door. The Peacocks are a dreadful shooting team, and they turn the ball over a ton. If that doesn't get you excited, the fact that they give up more free throws than nearly any team in college basketball surely must. Drawing Tennessee, a team that can fill up the box score, in the first round, didn't do Bashir Mason's team any favors. Volunteer guard Zakai Ziegler loves nothing more than to steal the ball and create transition opportunities, and he should have a field day against the Peacocks.