What percentage of games does each March Madness seed win in First Round?
Upsets are arguably the best part of March Madness, unless you're a fan of the higher seed going down early in the NCAA Tournament, of course. But even if your bracket gets busted, college basketball fans still love to see Cinderellas put on the glass slipper and start a potentially magical run through the tournament.
We know that upsets obviously happen every year, even if we've only ever seen two No. 16 seeds upset a No. 1 seed, but just how likely are upsets to happen? More specifically, how often do the lower seeds in March Madness actually win their First Round games?
Looking back over history in the NCAA Tournament, we've got the answers as we've broken down the winning percentage for every seed in the First Round of March Madness.
March Madness seed win percentage in First Round of NCAA Tournament
March Madness Seed | All-Time Record | Winning Percentage |
|---|---|---|
1 | 150-2 | 98.68% |
2 | 141-11 | 92.76% |
3 | 130-22 | 85.53% |
4 | 120-32 | 78.95% |
5 | 99-53 | 65.13% |
6 | 94-58 | 61.84% |
7 | 93-59 | 61.18% |
8 | 74-78 | 48.68% |
9 | 78-74 | 51.32% |
10 | 59-93 | 38.82% |
11 | 58-94 | 38.16% |
12 | 53-99 | 34.87% |
13 | 32-120 | 21.05% |
14 | 22-130 | 14.47% |
15 | 11-141 | 7.24% |
16 | 2-150 | 1.32% |
There are a lot of obvious takeaways from these winning percentages. First and foremost, it's worth noting that, up until 16-seed UMBC beating 1-seed Virginia in 2018, No. 16 seeds had a 0% winning percentage in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Since then, we've also had Farleigh Dickinson upsetting Purdue in 2023 in a 16-over-1 victory in the First Round to raise the winning percentage over 1% historically.
Beyond that, the numbers also make it understandable why the 12-over-5 upset has become so popular when making March Madness bracket picks. With just over 3% fewer wins than 11-seeds and still under 4% fewer wins than 10-seeds, No. 12 seeds have historically been tough matchups in the NCAA Tournament.
One thing that was shocking -- and is perhaps an indictment of the Selection Committee -- is No. 9 seeds actually having a winning record over No. 8 seeds in March Madness. Sure, the margin is slim, but for the lower-seeded team to have a better record historically, especially when the 8-9 seeds are typically at-large bids, seems like too often those teams have been mis-seeded.
All told, though, these numbers do tell us that upsets happen more often than you might expect... but not too often. So be sure to take note of that and not get too chaotic whenever you're filling out your bracket.
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