The math says Alex Ovechkin will break Wayne Gretzky's goal record this season

The Washington Capitals are entering their 50th season as a franchise, so they'll have plenty to celebrate with fans throughout the year. But I'm sure the team is preparing for an even bigger moment to remember.

Captain Alexander Ovechkin ended the 2023-24 season with 853 career goals - and he probably could've finished with a lot more if it weren't for an uncharacteristically slow start to the season.

Nevertheless, the 39-year-old generational talent is entering his 20th season in the NHL (that's almost half the existence of the Capitals!) and has a shot at completing a herculean accomplishment.

Ovechkin is 42 goals away from breaking Wayne Gretzky's all-time regular season goals record (894) and when you do the rough calculations, he's probably going to do it during the 2024-25 campaign. His head coach Spencer Carbery and general manager Chris Patrick certainly think so.

“Do I think he can score 42 goals this year? Yes, I do,” Carbery told NHL.com's Tom Gulitti in August. “I absolutely think he’s capable of that.”

"‘Ovi’ has done so many things that people never thought he could do, so I think it’s on the table for sure,” Patrick said.

So, when exactly will Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky's record?

It's impossible to pin point the exact game Ovechkin will score career goal No. 895 but we can do some quick calculations and make an estimation.

It's important to factor in the unpredictable nature of the regular season - slumps, injuries and just poor team play in general can greatly influence a goal total.

Like last year, for example, Ovechkin started 2023 with such a bad slump that he was practically nonexistent on the ice for Washington. He tallied just five goals after 21 games, putting him on pace for a shocking 19 goals for the season, per CBS Sports.

However, classic Ovechkin reappeared after the All-Star break and finished the season with a 0.56 goals-per-game rate, reaching 41 total on the year.

Now, consider the fact that Ovechkin has averaged 0.60 goals per game in his career and 0.54 over his last three seasons in Washington. He's also averaged 41 goals per season in that time.

Not to mention Ovechkin's averaging roughly 331 shots on goal per season with a 12.9 shooting percentage. So, if he were to shoot on target at that rate this year, he would be estimated at scoring 42-43 goals in 2024-25.

It's fair to infer that Ovechkin won't have the same early-season slump he did in 2023, especially after the team revamped the roster with trades for Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane and Brandon Duhaime to compliment top-six forwards Dylan Strome and Tom Wilson.

Ovechkin's second half pace last season was slightly above average for him and it's within reason to say he can produce at a similar if not higher pace in 2024-25, particularly with the boosted lineup and increased possibility for offensive chances.

"He has shown year after year ... if he puts himself in enough positions to shoot the puck in a good spot ... he will put the puck in the back of the net," Carbery said. "So if he’s doing those things, which I expect he will, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he could score 42 goals at his age because of how talented of a scorer he is."

Ovechkin scored 36 goals over 61 games in 2023 (factoring in the 21 game, five goal slump) so if I had to estimate when he's overtaking Gretzky then I would point to the month of March 2025. But if you've watched "The Great Eight" when he's approached career milestones, he tends to up his play another gear, so it could be even sooner than that.