How stats prove letting Max Fried walk is another Alex Anthopoulos masterclass

The Atlanta Braves and starting pitcher Max Fried have made little progress on a contract extension since spring training of last season. The two sides are said to be far apart in their expectations of what Fried's new deal would look like. The former All-Star all but confirmed this in recent days.

Fried telegraphed his future some, if only to perhaps put some pressure on the Braves to meet him halfway. However, Alex Anthopoulos may not be inclined to do so. The Braves shopped for top-level starting pitching this offseason, and could be inclined to do so again at the trade deadline. If Fried leaves, they'll have little issue finding a replacement.

Atlanta's pitching staff is stacked with young talent. Spencer Strider is a true ace, while Bryce Elder is just 24 years old and made the All-Star team in 2023. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep are both top-100 prospects, with the former making his big-league debut last season. The rotation is in good shape were Fried to leave.

Stats back up the Braves plans with Max Fried, unfortunately

As talented as Fried is, he's of soft-tossing righty who is over 30 years old. While his control and stuff should age well, is he worth the contract it'll take to keep him around? Look no further than this winter's free-agent market for a preview of what that would look like.

Also, one quick look at ZiPS projections shows that Fried, while valuable, should not be the focus of the Braves spending, especially with pitching prospects in the pipeline and Strider atop the rotation. There are only five pitchers expected to be worth over 3.5 WAR come 2026, and only one (Strider) projected over 4 WAR. Much of that has to do with current starting pitching trends, innings limits and days between starts. Starting pitching is important, but so is a deep rotation. Investing too much money in one player will hurt in the long run.

For a front office executive like Anthopoulos, who trends heavy towards extending young players who have yet to reach peak value, signing Fried to a long-term deal doesn't make a ton of sense. His production can be replaced from within and on the free-agent or trade market, where Anthopoulos has already been quite active.