Did the Mets win the Justin Verlander trade? Don't sleep on New York

The New York Mets repurposed their investment in a big way at the MLB trade deadline, making several high-profile moves to shift the competitive timeline a few years down the road. No trade was splashier than the decision to send Justin Verlander back to the Houston Astros, the team he won a World Series with in 2022.

New York even footed the bill, opting to pay $54 million of the remaining $93 million on Verlander's contract. The Astros re-added their No. 1 pitcher, while New York received two of Houston's top prospects, OF Drew Gilbert and OF Ryan Clifford.

At the time, our Scott Rogust graded the Mets' end of the bargain as a C+, taking issue with the financial sacrifices made on New York's part. The Astros essentially got their World Series captain back for less than half the value of his contract — a contract the Astros initially refused to match in the offseason.

That said, New York made the deal with the longview in mind. The Astros were always going to benefit in the short term, but Verlander is going on 40 years old with only a couple years on his contract. The Mets are hoping the long-term career arcs of Gilbert and Clifford eventually tip the scales in their favor.

The Mets have to feel awfully good about that gamble at the moment.

New York Mets on track to win Justin Verlander trade with Houston Astros

Justin Verlander has been right on par with expectations since arriving back in Houston. He's 5-2 in seven starts, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.190 WHIP with 41 hits, 16 earned runs, and 38 strikeouts in 42 innings pitched.

He's far removed from his torrid Cy Young pace of last season, but that's not unexpected. Verlander is in the twilight of his career and his productivity with the Mets, while solid, was certainly not remarkable by Verlander's high standards. Still, the Astros know how to get the most out of Verlander and can trust him on a postseason stage, which is where the team is once again headed.

The Mets, however, are successfully tanking with a tentative plan to dive even further into a rebuild next offseason (with the possible exception of a Shohei Ohtani pursuit). The cherry on top is the recent play of former top Astros prospect Drew Gilbert, who is tearing it up for Double-A Binghamton.

Gilbert is currently the Mets' No. 2 prospect behind Luisangel Acuña, per MLB Pipeline, and he's the MLB's No. 55 prospect overall. His increase in fly-ball rate since arriving in the New York farm system is a very promising sign, especially for a team that could soon lose its primary home run hitter, Pete Alonso, to a rabid trade market.

Here's MLB Pipeline's scouting report on Gilbert:

"Gilbert is extremely aggressive in all phases of the game, yet his superb hand-eye coordination enables him to repeatedly barrel balls and produce high exit velocities. His left-handed stroke can get long because he hunts home runs, and while he rarely strikes out, he does make more ground-ball contact than desired. He's not physical but does have enough bat speed and strength to provide 15-20 homers per season without selling out for power."

It would appear that Gilbert has made credible progress in a primary area of weakness, getting more elevation under his hits without sacrificing his contact efficiency. The 22-year-old is still a year or two away from the MLB, but the Mets could very well swing back toward contention by the time Gilbert is ready to help the big-league squad. That was the dream all along when Billy Eppler pulled the trigger prior to the Aug. 1 deadline.

It's too soon to say who won or lost the trade, but New York has every reason to feel good about the move — even as Verlander continues to mooch off their payroll.