The Mets got way too cute with their pitching plans for do-or-die doubleheader

Somehow, despite losing three out of four games in their biggest week of the season, the New York Mets are not only alive, but they control their own destiny on the regular season's final day. If they win one of the two games scheduled on Monday against the Atlanta Braves, they clinch a postseason berth. The team that they're facing happens to be in the same situation. One win and they're in.

With that in mind, both of these teams are running out their best possible lineups to give themselves the best chance to win early. Francisco Lindor is in there for the Mets despite his back injury. Ozzie Albies is only batting right-handed as he recovers from a wrist injury. Ideally, both of these stars would be resting the day before the postseason, but these teams cannot afford the luxury.

Despite both teams treating the opener of the doubleheader like their most crucial game of the season, the Mets are not doing so with their starting pitching decisions. Instead of using Luis Severino, one of their best pitchers, the Mets are turning to Tylor Megill, their No. 5 starter for the opener of the doubleheader.

While it's not hard to see where the Mets were going with this decision, it feels a bit too cute.

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Mets might've gotten too cute with pitching plans for season-defining doubleheader

The reasoning behind this decision is pretty simple. The Mets are using Megill, the inferior option, in a game that they would like to win, but don't need to win. If they lose the opener of the doubleheader, their season will still be alive. They'd still be just one win away from the postseason and would have a better option on the mound if they must win Game 2.

The best-case scenario that comes with saving Severino is that the Mets find a way to win Game 1 with Megill and start Severino in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.

This all sounds great in theory, but how often do things play out in the best-case scenario? How likely is it that the Mets steal a game against the Braves with a pitcher who was in the minor leagues at this time last month against a desperate Braves team trying to get in?

If we're being fair, the Braves are doing the same thing. Instead of starting NL Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale, they're throwing rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach. Still, it feels like more of an extreme scenario for New York to be doing this than Atlanta.

Schwellenbach is not Sale, but he's a whole lot better than Megill and has dominated the Mets, allowing just one run in 14 innings pitched against New York. He has surrendered a total of five hits against the Mets in two starts. On the flip side, Megill has a 4.94 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) against the Braves.

No, the Braves are not turning to their best, but their second-best is pretty darn good. The gap doesn't feel nearly as wide as the gap between Severino and Megill.

At the end of the day, their focus should be on winning Game 1 of this doubleheader. Doing so allows the Mets to rest Lindor in the second game. Doing so allows the Mets to give somewhat of a break to a bullpen that would be overly taxed in the Wild Card Series. Doing so allows everyone to take a sigh of relief and not press for another full nine innings.

The Mets are planning ahead for games that they don't know will occur or have any meaning. As of now, they have no idea whether there will be a Game 1 of a Wild Card Series for Severino to pitch in, yet that possibility undoubtedly played a role in this decision. They don't know whether the second game will have any meaning, yet they saved him for that, rather than using him when they can clinch right now.

It could work out. Neither of these teams should get swept in this doubleheader. Still, the decision to start Megill over Severino is one that can easily be judged if things don't work out for New York.