Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

After a week at Riviera, one look at the field for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta is a bit jarring for golf fans. This, of course, is not a signature event on the PGA Tour, but that doesn't totally account for the fact that we're looking at defending champion Tony Finau as the favorite this week while the rest of the field is essentially only a list of guys hoping to break through.

Players like Nicolai Højgaard, Keith Mitchell, Emiliano Grillo, Stephan Jaeger and many others have all had moments -- and even some wins on the PGA Tour -- but are still hoping to cement a great start to the 2024 season at the Mexico Open with a wide-open golf course at Vidanta Vallarta.

This is only the third time this event has been on the PGA Tour schedule, but one thing we've seen is that the wide fairways and long course favors longer drivers along with a need to play well from 175+ yards on approach.

We need to bounce back from a poor 0-for showing at The Genesis Invitational, and we're ready to get it. These are our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Genesis: 6-36-0, -2.73 Units (1-13 on outrights and longshots | -4.6 units at Genesis) | One and Done Total for 2024: $1,394,462 (Ludvig Åberg at Genesis, $251,400 )

PGA Tour expert picks for Mexico Open at Vidanta: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta: Brandon Wu (+450)

When you look at Brandon Wu overall over his last few starts, the finishes aren't going to pop off. He has just two Top 30 finishes in nine starts since the start of the Fall Swing late in 2023. He's also gone T18, Missed Cut, T47, Missed Cut to start his 2024 season. But the numbers tell us a bit different story. He's gained strongly on approach in four of his last five starts and overall ball striking in three of five, but the putter has been an issue. At this event, though, he has two Top 3 finishes in as many starts and has gained hugely with the putter in both. I think his ball striking is primed for him to make a run and a Top 10 in this field isn't out of the question.

Outright Winner pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta (0.5 Units): Taylor Pendrith (+2500)

Taylor Pendrith has been inconsistent to begin the 2024 season but his pop weeks have been great with a T10 at Sony and T9 at Farmers -- he missed the cut at The AmEx. But when you think of the profile that has succeeded at Vidanta Vallarta, he checks the boxes. He's long off of the tee and excels with long approach shots. We've also seen him put well on bermuda grass as well. His profile makes so much sense for this course, and I love his odds in a weak field to capitalize on that.

One and Done pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta: Taylor Pendrith

Even if Pendrith doesn't get the win, though I fully believe it's in the cards, I see a great finish coming. With the way he's performed on approach recently and how he can find the fairways consistently with his long-ball off of the tee, he's going to be in the mix this week, so he's an easy call to ride for One and Done as well.

Mexico Open at Vidanta picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Nicolai Højgaard to finish Top 10 at Mexico Open at Vidanta (+190)

We're not talking about the juiciest odds for a Nicolai Højgaard to finish in the Top 10, but how can you not like him this week? Worldwide and including two signature events, the 22-year-old hasn't finished worse than T39 this year. He's long off of the tee and doesn't have to worry about accuracy this week in Mexico, and he's not gained on approach in seven straight events. He finished T33 here last year but it seems as if he's leveled up and he should be on the first page of the leaderboard this week.

Joseph Bramlett to finish Top 20 at Mexico Open at Vidanta (+350)

There is going to be a hefty number of people on Cameron Champ this week -- but I'm taking a Cam Champ clone with better recent form (not a high bar, admittedly) and far better odds. His four starts in 2024 have been a T25, T52 and two missed cuts. But he's quite long off of the tee when he can dial it up with the driver, and has popped on approach. He also finished T10 at the Mexico Open last year. I love for him to capitalize on a place that should suit his game and get a solid finish that, frankly, he needs.

Maverick McNealy to finish Top 20 at Mexico Open at Vidanta (+230)

After taking five months off due to injury at the end of last year, Maverick McNealy is back and is trending in all the right ways. It's clearly been him working his way into form but it's working. His last start was a Top 10 in Phoenix and he gained strokes across the board in doing so. While his profile isn't akin to Pendrith or long-hitters, he's great in weaker fields, on long approaches, and with the putter. As he rounds into form totally, I'm more than willing to take a swing at this price while he's still there in this type of tournament.

Longshot Pick to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta (0.1 Units): Alexander Björk (+15000)

Another guy who definitely doesn't fit the profile as the 33-year-old Swede Alexander Björk is short off the tee, he excels on approach, particularly long approaches as he's T20 in proximity on approaches from 175-200 yards out and above Tour average from over 200 yards out as well. He's popped recently with a T11 at The American Express and this could make a great deal of sense for him this week.