3 biggest disappointments of Miami Heat's season to this point

As if it were tradition, the Miami Heat are struggling in the regular season following a deep playoff run. The three biggest reasons for their struggles may surprise you.
2023 NBA Finals - Game Four
2023 NBA Finals - Game Four / Megan Briggs/GettyImages
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Like clockwork, we find ourselves at the All-Star Break and questioning the Miami Heat's play.

After a very bad January, where they went 6-10 and scored the least points per game for the entire league in the month (104.8), the sky was falling. Many were claiming that they should make a move at the trade deadline, that they weren't built for the postseason as currently constructed, and that they couldn't catch lighting in a bottle like they did last season, where they made the Finals as the eighth seed. But, they've bounced back since then, winning six of their last eight to stand at 30-25, tied with the Orlando Magic for seventh, and half a game behind the Indiana Pacers to get out of the Play-In.

They didn't end up making a big splash at the deadline, only moving Kyle Lowry for a very solid scorer in Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets. That follows a trend from the offseason, where their biggest additions were drafting Jaime Jaquez Jr. and signing Josh Richardson and Thomas Bryant. All accounts point to them making a big effort in landing Damian Lillard in the offseason, but that didn't materialize as he landed with the Milwaukee Bucks. Yet, they still loom as that team that no contender wants to see in the postseason, as they pose as a serious threat to make a deep playoff run once again.

In spite of that, it's fair to say this is a disappointing first half of the season for the Heat. Coming off a Finals run and a third Eastern Conference Finals in four seasons, it was fair to expect, at the very least, for the Heat to maintain themselves as a playoff team. Instead, they've been inconsistent, blown leads, and are on the cusp of having to go through the Play-In gauntlet once again to make the postseason. Their defense is elite, currently boasting a 113.0 defensive rating (eighth), nothing shocking from a Heat team anchored by Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and stellar perimeter defenders around them.

It should be noted that injuries have had something to do with that, as they've used 29 different starting lineups so far, and their three best players (Adebayo, Butler and Tyler Herro) have only played 19 of the team's 55 games together. However, they are 9-10 in those games, so their struggles can't be just chalked up as that.

Depending on what lense you view them, you can be okay with how their playing because you're confident in them figuring it out, especially with Spoelstra at the helm, or you're worried that other contenders in the conference pose a better chance than they did last year of taking them out. Either way, it's fair to assess their play by looking at the three biggest disappointments of their season so far. Let's do that.

3. Josh Richardson

Kyle Lowry could've been in this spot, but not only is he not with the team anymore, but I actually think his play wasn't that bad. Sure, it could've been better, but that perception was more about his contract and less about his on-court production. In a similar vein, Richardson being in this spot is a product of the Heat's context and less about his play.

As I previously stated, J-Rich was the Heat's biggest signing in the offseason, his acquisition marking his return to the franchise where he started his career and traded him in a haul to Philadelphia for Jimmy Butler. He had improved his offensive game each of his first four seasons in the league with Miami, but struggled to find his footing, playing for five teams in four seasons since the trade. And, again, that wasn't necessarily because of his play, but more about the context of the team he was on. The story of his career, apparently. It seemed like he wanted to come back to Miami to get his career back on track.

His start to the season was very rough. Since then, his shooting has been more steady, but his offense has been very inconsistent. His perimeter defense, his calling card for all of his career, has been good, and his secondary creation has been productive. His scoring in the mid-range has always been good in a Heat uniform, and even his catch-and-shoot ability is good now (39.5 percent on corner 3's and 36.5 percent on overall CAS 3-point attempts).

If you're following context clues, though, you'll know that Richardson has been overtasked with the offensive burden he's had to carry this season. With the Heat not having a backup point guard, and no perimeter on-ball creators outside of Butler, Herro and maybe on his best days Caleb Martin, Richardson has had to create with the ball in his hands. And the results have been mixed, with his pull-up shooting (36.5 percent) being average, and his playmaking not being the best. His on/off numbers reflect that, with the Heat being a plus-3.5 with him off the floor, and a minus-4.4 with him on. Their offensive rating falls from 116.2 without him (would be 15th leaguewide) to 111.2 with him on the court (would be 26th leaguewide). When adjusted for "High" and "Very high" leverage situations (ie close games in the fourth quarter), he's a minus-7.5 on versus a plus-5.9 off.

When he's right, scoring in double figures, his production is important and he shows he should be in the playoff rotation. When he isn't, which more times than not has been the case, he shouldn't be depended on for key minutes against other contenders. At worst, he's another body that can defend, which is useful against great teams, but it'll all come down to him making shots and creating. All of this isn't necessarily his fault, again, but he could also be playing better.

The Heat tried to rectify this issue by trading for Rozier, but he's hurt now. Beyond that, Richardson's struggles wouldn't be that big of a problem if it didn't come at the expense of...