Ranking the MLB Home Run Derby field by bat speed, launch angle and more

The MLB Home Run Derby will take place on Monday, July 15 at 8 PM E.T. It will feature eight of the best hitters in baseball — moonshot experts looking to entertain the fandom in the best way they know how, by smacking leather projectiles into the sunset skies of Arlington, Texas.

It should be a lot of fun. While a few all-time stars played hooky — lookin' at you, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge — the field is loaded. We have two of baseball's top up-and-coming superstars, a World Series hero, a few breakout stars, and of course, the One True HR Derby Champ in Pete Alonso.

Here are the eight players participating in the event, for those looking for a quick recap.

• Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles (28 HR)
• Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets (19 HR)
• Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies (11 HR)
• Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals (16 HR)
• Marcell Ozuna, DH, Atlanta Braves (26 HR)
• Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians (23 HR)
• Adolis Garcia, RF, Texas Rangers (17 HR)
• Teoscar Hernandez, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers (19 HR)

There appear to be a couple obvious frontrunners in Alonso and Henderson, but frankly, the HR Derby is anybody's game. It's about catching lightning in a bottle — getting hot at the exact right moment. It also has very little to do with in-game swing patterns or standard MLB plate tactics. It's its own beast.

There are, of course, a few potentially telling stats by which to rank the participants. We can go down the list, highlighting a handful of power indicators that could give us a better sense of the real contenders Monday night, while separating the pretenders from the pack.

MLB Home Run Derby participants ranked by bat speed

This is the key, right? Who gets their bat around the quickest, and thus meets the ball at the desired point in space and time.

Bat speed isn't everything in the field of moonshotting — Ramirez has 12 more home runs than Bohm this season — but in a competation that can boil down to who swings the hardest the most often, it's telling that Henderson and Alonso top the list here, as well as topping the betting odds. Bobby Witt Jr. and Marcell Ozuna are third and fourth in the odds, per CBS Sports, so maybe there's some weight to this particular list.

MLB Home Run Derby participants ranked by launch angle

Another important aspect of hitting baseballs over the fence is the launch angle. Line drives don't catch air and go the distance. Pop flies, on the other hand, can float a little too high. It's important to find the right balance between horizontal propulsion and vertical climb. This particular metric paints the HR Derby field in an entirely new light and complicates the projections a bit.

Not much here in terms of surprises, if only the stark difference compared to bat speed (and the betting odds). Alec Bohm, king of the deep-outfield double that doesn't quite catch enough air to clear the fence, was always going to rank near the bottom here. Henderson in last place, however, could come a mild shock to those at home. He's third in the entire MLB in home runs, trailing only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He's not relying on height, though. He's just rifling those baseballs over the fence at max speed.

Speaking of which...

MLB Home Run Derby participants ranked by exit velocity

We are going with average exit velocity here, rather than max exit velocity. It's important to consistently hit hard in the HR Derby. It's about smacking the most dingers, not who manages the hardest, furthest home run.

Again. Gunnar Henderson swings hard and sends those baseballs flying, if not always at the steepest angle. Pete Alonso is the opposite, in a way. He swings hard, tees it up high, and lets the ball float over the fence on a gust of wind. There's a reason the camera generally spikes vertically whenever Alonso gets a hold of one. This is another solid mark in Witt's favor, too. He has young legs, a gorgeous swing, and all the metrics to qualify as a proper dark horse contender.

MLB Home Run Derby participants ranked by HR distance

One last metric, and a simple one at that. Who's hitting these suckers the furthest? The HR Derby isn't a distance competition necessarily — 20 home runs that barely scrape past the fence beats 10 home runs that leave the stadium — but it's helpful to know who hits the ball the longest on average.

Bobby Witt Jr... well, again, he finishes top-3. He is the only top-3 finisher on all four lists here. Does that mean something? Nothing? Only time will tell, but the Derby promises plenty of long-distance bombs and high-flying entertainment.

Buckle in, folks.