MLB Insider: Examining Ronald Acuña Jr.'s MVP case vs. Dodgers stars

For most of the season, Atlanta Braves star Ronald Acuna Jr. was the favorite to win the National League MVP race. The stats backed it up. The betting odds did, too. He appeared to be running away with it.

Now, the race has completely flipped upside down. Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts is now the favorite, with Acuna now the favorite to finish second in MVP voting.

Betts, 30, is in the midst of a dominant stretch, hitting .464/.514/.814 with eight home runs and 25 RBI in the last 28 days. Acuna, 25, is on the verge of hitting 30 homers and stealing 60 bases, and has a real shot at hitting 35 homers and stealing 70 bases by the time the season ends.

Who has the best NL MVP case, Ronald Acuña Jr. or Mookie Betts?

Here’s an up-close look at each of their numbers in 2023:

Betts: .315/.407/.611 with a 1.018 OPS; 35 home runs; 93 RBI; 7.3 WAR; 10 stolen bases; 171 OPS+.

Acuna: .330/.413/.562 with a .975 OPS; 28 home runs; 74 RBI; 6.3 WAR; 59 stolen bases; 159 OPS+.

Both players are having dominant, season-changing campaigns. You can make a strong case for it to be either player. But in looking deeper at the numbers, despite Acuna’s breakout campaign and legitimate chance at becoming the first player with 30 homers and 60 stolen bases in baseball history, right now I’m leaning toward Betts.

It comes down to the smallest of margins. But Betts has widened the gap in home runs and OPS. Betts’ defense is superior (he has two defensive runs saved this season; Acuna has zero defensive runs saved this season). And despite Acuna leading the league in stolen bases, he has a 4.9 BsR (baserunning runs above average). That’s only 0.6 higher than his former teammate Freddie Freeman, who has 17 stolen bases on the season.

And that’s how the MVP race becomes even more complicated.

Freeman, 33, has also been putting up an MVP-caliber season. He’s hitting .341/.417/.581 with 23 home runs and 86 RBI. He has a .998 OPS. He has a 167 OPS+, which is higher than Acuna, and slightly lower than Betts. He also has 50 doubles, which is the most in Dodgers history. He has a 6.6 WAR, which also ranks higher than Acuna.

Which makes this a three-horse race for the National League MVP. Right now, it would appear that Betts has the slight edge after it appeared for months that Acuna was running away with the award. But there is also a month of baseball left to be played, and it’s the most important month in the regular season.

Considering that Betts, Acuna and Freeman all play for the two best teams in the National League, the MVP race will be on center stage for a national audience during that stretch. It’s shaping up to be the most tightly contested MVP race in recent baseball memory. But entering Monday, it appears to be Betts in the lead with Acuna and Freeman (in order) trailing just behind.