MLB insider forecasts potential Cardinals apocalypse if downturn persists

The St. Louis Cardinals have lost four straight to drop below .500 in a hotly contested National League Wild Card race. It has been a downhill slide for the Redbirds ever since the All-Star break, leading to pervasive questions about what the future holds in St. Louis.

For a while there, it felt like Oli Marmol and John Mozeliak were going to avoid the hot seat and put the Cards back on track. In recent weeks, however, the vibes have shifted drastically. If the Cardinals can't turn their season around and creep back into the postseason mix — FanGraphs gives St. Louis a 5.5 percent chance of playing October baseball — there could be sweeping changes up and down the organizational hierarchy.

Ken Rosenthal appeared on Foul Territory TV to provide remarkable insight into the unfamiliar territory St. Louis is approaching. Few ball clubs have been more stable and more competitive over the last several decades than the Cardinals. The Redbirds are accustomed to perennial playoff contention and a clear direction, not toiling in mediocrity.

If St. Louis' current arc continues, it would mark the first time since 1958-59 that the Cardinals finish below .500 in back-to-back seasons. That is an amazing testament to the Cardinals' success over the years, but it's also a damning indictment on the current management structure (and the roster, of course).

According to Rosenthal, if the Cards' break their streak, heads could roll...

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Cardinals on the verge of breaking incredible streak and plunging into offseason chaos

The obvious focus of offseason discourse will be John Mozeliak and Oli Marmol. After stacking underwhelming campaigns, there will be real pressure from the Cardinals fandom to instigate foundational changes.

It starts with Mozeliak, who has been in charge of the Cards' front office since 2007. He has overseen a great many successes, with three Executive of the Year awards and a 2011 World Series title on his resumé. Few executives have accomplished as much as Mozeliak, and yet, even the greatest voices get stale eventually.

We have to remove sentiment from the equation when evaluating the Cardinals' situation. It's not like St. Louis is suffering under a strict budget from ownership. The Cards tend to spend a lot of money, but Mozeliak has not made the most of his aggressive swings. Meanwhile, St. Louis' farm system ranks 19th according to the latest MLB Pipeline update.

Mozeliak's roster is a jumbled mess of aging former stars and young up-and-comers who aren't quite good enough to turn this ship around.

It's about time for St. Louis to consider a new vision. Mozeliak has accrued a ton of power and respect over the years, and rightfully so, but the Cardinals' unprecedented lack of recent success could be enough to spark change.

If Mozeliak is ousted, that all but ensures that Oli Marmol is done. The youngest coach in baseball at the time of his hiring, Marmol was rewarded with an extension last offseason despite the Cardinals' rotten 2023 season. He has not done enough to change the narrative around his decision-making in 2024.

Unless St. Louis can sneak into the playoffs, Marmol's name — guaranteed money or not — will come up in conversations around the chopping block. The impending free agency of Skip Schumaker, a beloved former Cardinal and recent Manager of the Year, feels like a rather easy dot to connect.

It's too early in the season to write the obituary on the 2024 Cardinals and their management team, but the winds of change are howling. There is more pressure than ever on St. Louis' leaders. If this season continues on its southbound trajectory, sweeping changes are inevitable.