MLB Insider: Why Juan Soto is very likely headed for free agency after the 2024 season

When the New York Yankees acquired Juan Soto, it signaled to the other 29 teams that they were all-in on the 2024 season. So far, it looks like a smart gamble by general manager Brian Cashman, as the Yankees are 49-22 and have the best record in baseball.

But the Yankees understood that Soto, 25, could be a one-year rental. He is a free agent at the end of the 2024 season and has turned down seven contract extension offers, including a mammoth 15-year, $440 million extension from the Washington Nationals that led to him being traded in 2022. It’s unimaginable that he would sign an extension now and he appears headed for free agency, MLB Insider Jon Heyman of the New York Post told The Baseball Insiders podcast.

Why Juan Soto appears headed for free agency

Heyman ultimately predicted that Soto would sign a 14-year, $560 million contract in free agency which, if it does not include deferrals, would be the richest contract in present-day value in major-league history. 

Even if Soto was a one-year rental, which is possible, the trade to acquire the superstar outfielder has been a strong move by Cashman. Parting with Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vazquez and Kyle Higashioka was a hefty price, of course. But Soto has thrived in New York. He appears comfortable playing in the Bronx, where he is closer to his family than he was with the Padres and has formed arguably one of baseball history’s best one-two punches with Aaron Judge.

In 67 games this season, Soto has hit .317/.432/.593 with a 1.026 OPS, 17 home runs and 53 RBI. He has further bolstered his status as one of baseball’s elite players and the bidding for his services this offseason — and the coverage that surrounds his free agency — should rival Shohei Ohtani’s from this past winter.

Having acquired Soto, and playing in New York, could give the Yankees a leg up in the offseason sweepstakes for the superstar outfielder. He is expected to have a strong market but could have an East Coast preference, according to Heyman. Other teams that could make sense for Soto include the Philadelphia Phillies, who have his old hitting coach Kevin Long, as well as the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants, among others.

But the bidding for Soto will likely ultimately come down to who offers the most money. His agent, Scott Boras, is known for waiting out the market looking for top dollar — and should put the pressure squarely on Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Cashman in the offseason to bring Soto back to the Bronx.