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MLB Playoff picture if the season end today: Full bracket, projecting the field

With the MLB Playoffs around the corner, here's a look at where teams stand.

By Kinnu Singh

Los Angeles Dodgers v Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers v Arizona Diamondbacks / Christian Petersen/GettyImages
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As Major League Baseball rounds into the final month of the 2024 season, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape.

While plenty of teams have faded off into the abyss, many of the teams that remain in contention are competing with razor-thin margins.

After lucrative offseason signings that included superstar Shohei Ohtani, the Los Angeles Dodgers sit atop the standings with an 82-55 record, best in the majors. Despite worrisome struggles in the middle of the season, the New York Yankees have managed to right the ship behind the bats of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

A lot can change over the next month, as each team still has to play roughly 30 more games. If the standings remain how they are, however, here’s a look at how the MLB playoff standings and matchups would shape out.

American League Playoff Bracket

Byes:

  1. New York Yankees [AL East]
  2. Cleveland Guardians [AL Central]

Wild Card Series matchups:

The competition remains particularly tight in the American League. The Houston Astros hold a six-game lead in the AL West division, but teams in the remaining two divisions are still fighting for their positions.

The Yankees hold just a 0.5-game over the Baltimore Orioles in an AL East divisional battle that has remained close all season. The Bronx Bombers have a 58.8 percent chance of winning the division, per FanGraphs. The three remaining teams are nearly all eliminated from the divisional hunt, but the Boston Red Sox still hold out hope with a 15.1 percent chance to clinch a playoff berth.

The AL Central race is the least predictable. The Cleveland Guardians have earned a 3.5-game lead, but the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals are clinging onto the final two AL Wild Card spots while remaining in the hunt for the division crown. FanGraphs gives the Guardians a 66.9 percent chance of winning the division, but the Twins (21.7 percent) and Royals (11.3 percent) are keeping hope alive.

National League Playoff Bracket

Byes:

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers [NL West]
  2. Philadelphia Phillies [NL East]

Wild Card Series matchups:

The National League has done a much better job at establishing a clear hierarchy. The Los Angeles Dodgers have pulled out in front of the NL West division and lead the majors with a 82-55 record. The Dodgers have a 93.9 percent chance of winning the division, but Wild Card spots are likely for the San Diego Padres (94.5 percent) and Arizona Diamondbacks (86.5 percent). 

The Milwaukee Brewers hold a comfortable nine-game lead in the NL Central division, which they have a 99.3 percent chance of winning. The Philadelphia Phillies lead the NL East by six games, and they seem to have crushed any hopes the Atlanta Braves may have had of winning the division. FanGraphs projects that the Phillies have a 92.6 percent chance of clinching the division.

AL Wild Card Race

  1. Baltimore Orioles (79-59)
  2. Minnesota Twins (74-62
  3. Kansas City Royals (75-63)
  4. Boston Red Sox (70-67) — 4.5 games behind
  5. Detroit Tigers (70-68) — 5 games behind
  6. Seattle Mariners (69-68) — 5.5 games behind

Kansas City picked a bad time to go on a five-game losing streak. The Royals were swept by the Astros over the weekend, which opened the door for the Red Sox to overtake them for the final AL Wild Card spot. There’s no need for the Royals to panic just yet, however. They still hold a decent lead for the third Wild Card spot and still aren’t statistically eliminated from contending for AL Central division title. The Red Sox have just a 15.1 percent chance of stealing a Wild Card spot, while the Royals still possess a 77.1 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The Twins could go on a run and take the lead in the AL Central division, especially with Cleveland set to face the Dodgers next weekend. The Guardians have posted a 13-17 record in August, their worst winning percentage of any month this season. 

NL Wild Card Race

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks (77-60)
  2. San Diego Padres (78-61)
  3. Atlanta Braves (74-62)
  4. New York Mets (73-64) — 1.5 games behind
  5. Chicago Cubs (71-66) — 3.5 games behind
  6. St. Louis Cardinals (69-68) — 5.5 games behind

While the Braves are clinging onto the third and final NL Wild Card spot, the New York Mets have scratched and clawed to get back in position for a playoff berth. After failing to take advantage of a series against the Phillies, the Braves could be in danger of being surpassed by the Mets, who have a 29.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.

As games play out throughout September, the great teams will ultimately separate themselves from the remaining field.

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