MLB Power Rankings: Chris Sale makes case for NL Cy Young, but he has company

The Atlanta Braves toppled the San Francisco Giants on Monday night, 1-0, in 10 innings on to a go-ahead sac fly from Travis d'Arnaud. It was a duel of pitchers first and foremost, with two of the game's best going head-to-head in Chris Sale and Blake Snell.

The former recorded a season-high 12 strikeouts in 7.0 innings, allowing three hits and serving up zero runs. Snell carried a no-hit bid into the seventh, just a week removed from no-hitting the Cincinnati Reds. He went 6.1 innings deep, allowed a couple hits, and struck out 11.

Snell is too far removed from the Cy Young race after injuries sullied his early-season performance. Sale, however, is the betting favorite to win an award that would be long overdue for the eight-time All-Star. He has been dominant all season long, tweaking his pitching repertoire and anchoring a Braves rotation that lost preseason Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider midway through his second start.

Here are the current frontrunners for the NL Cy Young award. Sale has made about as strong a case as you'll find, but he has stiff competition — with the stiffest arguably coming from within his own division.

Honorable mentions: Ranger Suarez, Reynaldo Lopez, Logan Webb

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5. Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

Dylan Cease has been scorching hot since the All-Star break, and the San Diego Padres are riding that momentum on a weekly basis it seems. Essentially plugged in as the Blake Snell replacement during the offseason, it took Cease a few weeks to find his footing in San Diego. Down the stretch, however, he has been leaving hitters equal parts baffled and overwhelmed.

Cease currently leads the MLB with 181 strikeouts through 25 starts and 142.2 innings pitched. His 3.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are more than respectable, speaking to Cease's ability to keep innings short and scores low. He's in the 93rd percentile for both strikeout rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. There isn't a more intimidating starter in the league at this very moment.

There will be plenty of 'what could have been' talk around Cease this season. If he had performed stronger out of the gate, there's a good chance he'd be closer to No. 1 on this list right now. The strikeouts have been consistent all season, but Cease's command and durability have been particularly impressive of late. He no-hit the Washington Nationals a few weeks ago, securing nine strikeouts in the process. That is the sort of signature moment Cy Young cases are built around.

Cease finished second in Cy Young voting in 2022. He probably won't get that close in 2024, but the Padres can rest assured that Cease's struggles a season ago (and earlier this season) were an aberration, rather than a troubling trend.

4. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Pound for pound, there probably hasn't been a more dominant starting pitcher in the MLB this season. Paul Skenes arrived on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster exactly as advertised, boasting triple-digit heat and a mid-90s sinker that can pull the chair out from an unsuspecting hitter.

The only real knock on Skenes is limited exposure. He didn't arrive at the MLB level until midway through May, and the Pirates have been extremely protective of his arm. His innings have been purposely limited, so he simply hasn't been on the mound as frequently (15 starts, 92.0 innings to date) as others in this race. When judging the totality of a season, it's hard not to hold that against the 22-year-old.

Pittsburgh fans can rest assured, however, that Skenes will be in the mix for several Cy Young awards over the next decade. Assuming he can stay healthy, there just isn't more dominant stuff in the National League. Skenes has fallen off a bit in his last couple starts — 0-2 with a 3.16 ERA in his last four appearances — but if that's the low point for Skenes, the bump in the road, we are about to witness greatness.

He currently has a 6-2 record and a 2.25 ERA through 15 starts, including 115 punch-outs to his name. The dude is special.

3. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

It would be easy to overlook Hunter Greene because of the Reds' mediocrity, but even three games below .500, Cincinnati is within 4.5 games of the final Wild Card spot. There's a world in which Greene is introduced on the postseason stage in a few months, and any of Cincy's shortcomings so far are way beyond the fixing capacity of a single pitcher.

The Reds have been quite effective in Greene's outings. He has an 8-4 record through 23 starts, posting a 2.90 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The hard-throwing righty has electric stuff, getting loads of soft contact while also straight-up overpowering his opponents. Greene has 154 strikeouts through 136.1 innings with a K rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit rate all in the 80th percentile or above.

Greene very much fits the mold of a modern fireballer, primarily switching between a deadly fastball and an equally slippery slider. He has all the numbers and accolades to back up a Cy Young candidacy, including what promises to be the first of many All-Star appearances. All that is missing from Greene's candidacy — and this is a knock on Skenes, too — is team success. He's not exactly responsible for the broader issues in Cincinnati, but Greene just doesn't have the same spotlight or high-leverage moments as the frontrunners on this list.

At 25, this probably won't be the last time Greene pops up in the Cy Young conversation. He's going to anchor the Reds rotation for a long time.

2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler has put together arguably his best season to date at 34 years old. The case here is rather simple — he's the best pitcher in the MLB's best rotation, dominating all the noteworthy metrics for a Philadelphia Phillies team that ought to win its division and perhaps claim the No. 1 seed in the National League.

With 23 starts under his belt, Wheeler has a 2.75 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, including 156 strikeouts through 142.2 innings. He doesn't have absolute top-shelf velocity, but Wheeler makes up for it with insane run on his fastball. The rest of his arsenal falls neatly into place, keeping batters guessing and guessing some more.

Wheeler has quite possibly the best top pitch in the National League, and it's hard not to take note of his record — 11-5 — and the success of the team around him. Pitching is more divorced from collective team success than other positions or other sports, but it still counts for something when you're dominating as part of a dominant unit.

Wheeler also stands out especially well in the broader context of Philadelphia's rotation. Both Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez were All-Stars, and Aaron Nola tends to be extremely reliable. And yet, it is Wheeler who stands out above the crowd. He has seperated himself as the clear No. 1 in Philly and there's a nonzero chance he works into Cy Young poll position by season's end.

1. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

At last, we arrive at the frontrunner. Chris Sale has exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations going into the season. It's clear the Braves always had faith in Sale. The 35-year-old, traded from the Boston Red Sox during the winter, immediately inked an extension upon his arrival in Atlanta. But, there were valid reservations in the fandom. Sale hadn't pitched more than 103 innings in a season since 2019. He was a 35-year-old with persistent injury problems. How often have we seen similar investments falter?

And yet, Sale has been healthy and in top form all season long. His 2.61 ERA is the best among qualified National League starters and he leads the league in wins (13), too. Through 22 starts, Sale has racked up 134.2 innings and 177 strikeouts, narrowly trailing Dylan Cease for the MLB's top mark.

To see Sale in peak form at this stage of his career is a joy. Again, there isn't a more deserving — or more overdue — Cy Young candidate in the sport. Sale has been tormenting hitters for north of a decade. He's one of his generation's most memorable arms. It's only fitting that he gets this moment in Atlanta, a team that should be capable of postseason noise if the cards fall right.

It's also important to note the context of Sale's dominance. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider early in the season, leaving the Braves rotation kneecapped from the jump. Had Sale not mustered such a dominant campaign, the Braves probably aren't in the Wild Card mix. He has been a stabilizing force through injury after injury, holding down the top of Atlanta's rotation after one of the game's brightest young arms went down.

It has been an incredible season for Sale. If he can finish strong and take home the hardware, it will be well deserved.