MLB Power Rankings: Pretenders and Contenders among 5 early surprise teams

The first month of the 2024 MLB season has seen plenty of surprises, both good and bad.

We've seen perceived contenders like the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, and Arizona Diamondbacks get off to slow starts while there are several teams that have gotten off to better starts than expected.

Some of these surprise teams will continue to win, while others will falter.

5) Kansas City Royals: Contender

The Kansas City Royals are one of four teams to start play on Monday over .500 in the AL Central, which is shocking in its own right. While that division won't remain the best in baseball, the Royals look legit.

Kansas City sits at 20-15 entering play on Monday which is tied for second in the division. They might not end the season with a .576 winning percentage, but a playoff spot if not the division title feels realistic.

The Royals have stars all over the roster. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like an MVP candidate. The duo of Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo lead an underrated rotation. James McArthur is blossoming into a really solid young closer. Salvador Perez looks like he's back in his prime. They've been able to be so good with Vinnie Pasquantino not hitting his stride yet and Michael Wacha getting off to a brutal start.

The pieces are there for Kansas City to be legit, and their ownership seems intent on winning now as we saw this past offseason. This Royals team is good and fun.

4) Washington Nationals: Pretender

The Washington Nationals are a team most predicted to finish in last place in the NL East, but are a .500 team entering Monday's action, sitting in third in the division. With how bad the Marlins are and will continue to be, Washington might be clear from the cellar already.

It's nice to see the Nationals playing some solid baseball when they haven't had a winning record since when they won the World Series in 2019, but there's reason to believe it won't last.

This Nationals team isn't really good at anything in particular. They rank 20th in the majors with a 4.10 staff ERA, and are 19th in the league with 142 runs scored. They don't hit for much power, don't hit for a high average, don't strike out many, they're just average to below average at just about everything.

The NL East should be tough with the Braves and Phillies being among the league's elite and the Mets being a postseason contender. The National League as a whole doesn't have many bad teams in it. Until they start to show that they have a team strength, there's little reason to believe that they'll be contending for anything.

3) Boston Red Sox: Contender

Overreaction? Maybe, but the Boston Red Sox continue to get the job done. Given all that has gone wrong in Beantown, the fact that they sit at 19-16 on the year is truly extraordinary.

The Red Sox seemed like an obvious pick to finish at the bottom of the AL East. This was partially because of how difficult it is to compete in easily the best division in baseball, but was also because their roster just looked subpar on paper. While it still might look that way, the impact manager Alex Cora and pitching coach Andrew Bailey has had on this team is very real.

The Red Sox lead all of MLB with a 2.63 ERA. Their 2.10 rotation ERA leads the majors as well, and by a wide margin. It's hard to fathom how insanely good Boston's rotation has been with Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, and Garrett Whitlock missing all or some of the season, but that's where we are. While they probably won't stick at No. 1, the fact that they've been this good for over a full month suggests they'll pitch well all year. That should be a large enough sample to see the kind of impact Andrew Bailey is making.

Boston's lineup looks unrecognizable with Triston Casas, Trevor Story, and Masataka Yoshida on the IL right now, but they've been getting the job done. Eventually, they'll get Casas and Yoshida back, and can also fortify their offense at the deadline. They have Rafael Devers and Tyler O'Neill to build around on that end, and have a strong bullpen too. They won't win the division, but should compete for a playoff spot.

2) Oakland Athletics: Pretender

There has not been a better story thus far than the Oakland Athletics. Despite ownership and their front office making no effort to put a winning team on the field, the A's enter play on Monday with a record of 17-18, sitting comfortably in third place in what should be a tough AL West.

The A's have been getting strong play from 2023 All-Star Brent Rooker and Paul Blackburn has done a nice job leading their rotation, but the real story in Oakland has been their bullpen.

Mason Miller generates all the headlines, and deservingly so, but Oakland has a 3.04 bullpen ERA which is sixth in the majors. Lucas Erceg has dominated in a set-up role, and pitchers like Austin Adams, Michael Kelly, and Kyle Muller all have sub-3.00 ERA's in eight or more appearances.

As encouraging as their play has been, the A's rank tied for 26th in the majors in runs scored, and they rank 26th with a 4.68 rotation ERA. They can be trusted to hold leads, but with a subpar rotation and a subpar offense it's hard to trust they'll have many leads to protect. That, and playing in a really difficult AL West will likely result in them regressing.

1) Detroit Tigers: Contender

This might just be me going out on a limb, but it's very hard to bet against elite pitching. The Detroit Tigers have some elite pitching.

Tarik Skubal looks like a Cy Young candidate. Jack Flaherty looks healthy and is striking out more hitters than ever. The young duo of Reese Olson and Casey Mize has impressed. Even Kenta Maeda has turned things around of late. This isn't even mentioning Matt Manning as a strong depth option.

Detroit's bullpen has been unbelievable as well, holding the fifth-best reliever ERA in the majors at 3.03. Jason Foley has been dominant closing games, and guys like Alex Lange, Andrew Chafin, Alex Faedo, and Joey Wentz have pitched extremely well also.

The offense is.,. a problem, but Riley Greene seems to be breaking out, and they've gotten strong performances from guys like Mark Canha and Wenceel Perez as well. Think about it this way. The Tigers are 18-16 despite not a single home run hit by Spencer Torkelson. This is a guy who hit 31 home runs last season. If he gets going, their offense will be much better. They don't need many runs to win with their pitching staff being as good as it is. That, with what should be a poor division at some point, gives the Tigers a chance to be competitive.