First Pitch: Blue Jays can't trust Ross Atkins to execute the trades they need to make

Alex Anthopoulos leaving after the 2015 season ushered in a new era of Toronto Blue Jays baseball. Ross Atkins replaced him as the team's GM, and immediately led the Jays to the ALCS for a second consecutive season. That 2016 season is the last year in which the Blue Jays won a playoff game.

Atkins is in his ninth season as Toronto's GM and now has his team in a rough spot. He's done plenty of good things over his tenure including executing a full rebuild and building a strong core around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, but there's been more bad than good of late.

Toronto sits at 16-19 on the season. They're 7.5 games out of first place in the AL East and are 4.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. They've lost four series in a row. It doesn't get any easier with a series against the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies on deck. Postseason hopes aren't gone, but they're waning.

Things have gotten so bad in Toronto to the point where the idea of them being trade deadline sellers cannot be scoffed at. If it gets to that point, Ross Atkins cannot be in charge of running it.

Why the Blue Jays selling might not be as far-fetched as you think

Toronto is going to prolong selling for as long as they can. Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro know that selling at the trade deadline is essentially admitting that they failed. Selling at the trade deadline will likely result in one or both of them getting fired. However, this might get to a point where selling is unavoidable.

This Jays team has a ton of talent on it. Their starting rotation is among the best in baseball, especially when Kevin Gausman is on his game. Their bullpen, despite a rocky start to this season, should be good. Their team defense, particularly in the outfield, is absurdly good. Their lineup, however, is bad.

This team is built around pitching, defense, and the top of their order coming through. The top of their order has not done much of anything all year. George Springer continues to be in decline. Bo Bichette has looked completely lost. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to show that his 2021 breakout was an anomaly.

The only players hitting on this team are 39-year-old Justin Turner, a player who came out of nowhere in Davis Schneider, and the constantly injured Danny Jansen. It's really hard to win like that.

This Blue Jays team ranks 25th in the majors in runs scored and 24th in home runs. They also rank 29th in both average and WRC+ with runners in scoring position. They struggled to hit in the clutch last season and it's gotten worse this season.

Their lackluster offense combined with the fact that they're playing in easily the hardest division in MLB makes it so tough to believe that this team can go on a big run and be a serious threat in October. They have enough pieces to contend for the playoffs, but is that really enough? With so many key players including Guerrero and Bichette hitting free agency within the next two seasons is it really worth continuing on with this core?

Is it probable? Probably not, at least not yet. But the Blue Jays selling cannot be ruled out. Even Ken Rosenthal said so. If they do decide to sell, Ross Atkins cannot be in charge.

Why Ross Atkins has lost the trust of Blue Jays fans

Atkins has done a lot of good in his time in Toronto, but the reality is he's been in Toronto for nine seasons and the team has won a total of zero playoff games since his first year on the job, which should really be attributed more to Anthopoulos. It's hard to blame him for 2017-2019 when the team was rebuilding, but no playoff wins from 2020-2023? Really? It's hard to have such little success yet so much job security.

Jays fans really started to turn on Atkins last season when the team had glaring holes, and all Atkins did was essentially double down on the 2023 team that was deeply flawed. To the surprise of nobody, it isn't working.

He did come close to signing Shohei Ohtani, but Ohtani was the only player they seemed to seriously go after. The best player they signed was 39-year-old Justin Turner. The most expensive contract they handed out was to the unproven Yariel Rodriguez who began the season in the minors and is now hurt.

Meanwhile, they let Matt Chapman go to San Francisco on team-favorable teams and replaced him with a slew of infielders who can't hit like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, and Ernie Clement. Even with Chapman being the flawed hitter that he is, that's a miss. The Turner signing has aged well so far, but he replaced Brandon Belt who was excellent last season so that's essentially a wash. They lost Jordan Hicks who has excelled in San Francisco.

Ross Atkins went away from what worked

The best Jays team in Atkins' tenure, ironically, is the one that missed the postseason in 2021. They had seven guys hit 20+ home runs, two players hit 40+, and four players drive in 100+ runs. Robbie Ray won the Cy Young, Alek Manoah broke out as a rookie, and they added Jose Berrios as well. Their bullpen started horribly but ended very well with Jordan Romano taking the reins as the closer.

The Jays had a strong year in 2022 as well, but after that season, they went away from what worked. They were at their best when built around a deep lineup full of power. They prioritized defense in 2023 and 2024 and their offense has been among the worst in the AL because of it. They let key pieces like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez go in what turned out to be bad trades and while their defense has improved, the on-field product is objectively worse.

Who's to say Atkins won't go and trade Guerrero and/or Bichette for some strong defensive players who can't hit? That seems to be what he wants the identity of his team to be.

This Blue Jays team was swept out of the Wild Card round last season and did not do anything to get better. That's the bottom line. They'll win more games when their key players start to hit, but overall the roster is not good enough to be a serious contender. That falls on Atkins. The Jays are nearing the end of Guerrero and Bichette's guaranteed team control and are wasting their cheap years. Before Atkins continues to waste time, the Jays need to let him go.