3 Sonny Gray trade destinations to jumpstart a much-delayed Cardinals rebuild

The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to involve Sonny Gray in trade talks this offseason, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The news comes amid changing priorities in the St. Louis front office, with Chaim Bloom expected to occupy a more substantial role focused on player development and the farm system.

Gray, 34, was utterly electric this season, posting a 3.84 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 28 starts. He also netted 203 K's across 166.1 innings, setting a career high for strikeout rate (30.3 percent). He has never been too reliant on velocity, so Gray's repertoire figures to age quite well. What he lacks in overwhelming temperature, Gray can more than make up for with command and movement.

The Cardinals acquired Gray in an effort to bolster their lackluster rotation, but the decision to surround him with a potpourri of past-prime vets did not age particularly well. Gray did his job, but St. Louis' bullpen collective was unable to sustain a winning club. Blame John Mozeliak, blame Oli Marmol, or blame the baseball gods, but this St. Louis season was doomed from the jump.

Gray inked a three-year, $75 million contract last winter that includes a full no-trade clause. He should have some level of control over where he ends up, assuming St. Louis actually bites the bullet on a trade.

Here are a few realistic destinations for the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up.

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3. Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are the only team listed as a known potential suitor for Gray in the USA Today report. That probably means something. Gray spent three seasons in Cincy from 2019-21 and knows his way around the clubhouse. The Reds are second-to-last in the NL Central right now, so it may seem like an odd fit for an aging vet, but comfort trumps pure winning upside for a lot of players.

There is also plenty of reason to believe the Reds can actually compete next season. Gray would presumably join All-Star Hunter Greene atop the rotation. That is a fascinating yin-and-yang for Cincy to build around — Greene melting hitters with triple-digit heat while Gray dances around them with every manner of off-speed pitch. Experience in the bullpen never hurts, and it's hard to overstate the value of two top-shelf aces in your rotation.

Cincinnati has a lot of room to improve, but the NL Central is perhaps the weakest division in baseball. The door is wide open for a team to challenge Milwaukee at the top and neither Chicago nor St. Louis appear particularly great at building sustainable winners right now. The Reds have a burgeoning future MVP candidate in Elly De La Cruz and Greene, who should finish top-five in Cy Young voting. The core pieces are in place; now it comes down to how seriously the front office wants to build around them.

Their supposed interest in Gray is a positive sign. That means the Reds are siezing the moment and looking for big-ticket additions, even at steep costs financially. One could argue that Gray is the wrong ace to go after because of his age and the potential for a decline in production these next couple years, but Cincy is not a free agent destination. Beggars can't be choosers, and such.

2. New York Mets

The New York Mets have the deepest pockets in baseball, which tends to help out in trade or free agent pursuits. This figures to be a hectic winter for the Mets, especially if New York can squeak into the playoffs and drum up excitement for next season. Juan Soto is already on the Mets' radar and Corbin Burnes probably ends up getting a call from Steve Cohen, too.

New York has the financial wherewithal to trade for Gray. It's made even more sensible by the fact that most of the Mets' very dependable rotation — Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino — hits free agency in a couple months. New York will have its sights set elsewhere, so retaining all three seems unlikely. In fact, New York may try to actively upgrade across the board. The window has never been more open for a Mets takeover in the NL East with Atlanta floundering and Philadelphia getting older by the year.

It's fair to be concerned about Gray long-term, but again, he's not reliant on velocity so much as execution. He should age fairly well, and his contract only runs two more years, so the Mets don't need to worry about a long-term albatross. We have seen New York's pursuit of expensive veterans backfire in the past (see: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer), but even those instances resulted in favorable trades. Luisangel Acuña was the Scherzer return package and he's about to start in the playoffs, assuming New York closes strong.

The risk is fairly limited relative to the upside of planting Gray next to Kodai Senga atop the rotation. The Mets should be going all-out this winter and Steve Cohen has never been afraid to adding multiple expensive stars when the moment is right. Trading for Gray shouldn't prevent the Mets from targeting Soto or Burnes. If anything, it might aid their pursuit of the offseason's crème de la crème.

1. Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles face an uphill battle to retain Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes this winter. The 29-year-old could command north of $300 million in total, which has never been in the O's budget. New ownership can change that, and a deep postseason run might tempt Burnes to accept a discount, but Baltimore has a long way to go before we talk about their front office the same way we talk about the Mets front office.

Burnes is going to field offers from all the usual suspects — both New York teams, maybe both Los Angeles teams — and that could put Baltimore at risk of losing its most dependable starting pitcher. Burnes' arrival was so essential to the Orioles' success in 2024. There is no shortage of promising offensive talent coming up through the Baltimore farm system, but pitching was what got the O's eliminated from the playoffs a year ago. Burnes has invaluable experience pitching in October.

If the O's do miss out on a Burnes encore, it's only logical to hit the trade market in search of a viable replacement. Gray, too, has extensive October experience and he would bring a certain veteran calm to baseball's youngest World Series threat. If the O's can get healthier around Gray, their rotation shouldn't be much of an issue next season. Baltimore has more than enough trade ammo to acquire Gray, and more than enough firepower to sustain a top-shelf contender.

Heck, even if Burnes does return, Baltimore's new ownership group could prove its commitment to winning with a Gray trade. A second ace would do a lot to shore up the O's pitching staff. Burnes and Gray are two bonafide Cy Young candidates year-in and year-out, and that combination could be what it takes for Baltimore to firmly leapfrog New York atop the AL East.