One rival exec believes Blue Jays will only trade Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette if this happens

The Toronto Blue Jays are 33-34, which is 14.0 games behind the first-place New York Yankees in the AL East. Perhaps the Jays' Wild Card hopes are still alive, but with each passing week, the outlook darkens. Situated in arguably the most competitive division in baseball, Toronto simply doesn't have the personnel to contend at the highest level.

An offseason that once promised foundational change — including pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto — ended with more or less the same product, save for a downgrade at third base. The Blue Jays made an effort to improve the roster over the winter, but face-planted at every opportunity. Now the future is right around the corner, and it's unclear how Toronto should proceed.

With contention more of a pipe dream than a reality, the Blue Jays' stars are naturally involved in trade rumors. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are both under contract through 2025 with nary an extension in sight. GM Ross Atkins has expressed a desire to extend both his young stars, but that's easier said than done.

If Bichette and Guerrero both hold out for better offers, it's hard to justify not at least considering a trade. The longer a player is under contract, the higher his return value in a potential trade. The Jays can get more for one of their stars now than in the offseason, when Bichette and Guerrero become expiring contracts. If the tea leaves portend a dark future, it behooves Toronto to get ahead of the curve and trade them now.

That said, right now, it appears that Toronto wants to keep the band together and build outward, rather than starting fresh. In fact, one MLB executive believes there is only one way Bichette or Guerrero get dealt — if Atkins is fired from the front office.

From Jim Bowden of The Athletic.

"Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins doesn’t think it makes sense to trade shortstop Bo Bichette and/or first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. because he’d much rather sign both to long-term extensions. However, if the Blue Jays can’t do that by the trade deadline, they’d be foolish not to shop both. One rival executive believes a deadline trade involving either one will only happen if Atkins is replaced."

MLB exec believes Blue Jays will trade Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if Ross Atkins is fired

This is merely a prediction from an unnamed MLB source, so we can't treat it as hard fact. That said, this dynamic is not new. When a GM builds a team from the ground up, he becomes attached to those players. It's probably hard for Atkins to look at two of the crown jewels from his GM tenure and dump them for unproven prospects.

A new GM with less emotional or sentimental attachment to Bichette and Guerrero can more easily take the route of cold, hard logic.

The real question, of course, is whether or not Atkins is truly determined to keep Bichette and Guerrero. In theory, the Jays can wait until next season to work out extensions or pivot at the 2025 trade deadline. There's a chance the ultimate trade return is diminished by waiting, but it gives Toronto more time to figure out a direction and potentially get Bichette and Guerrero on the same page.

Bowden's report mentions the Chicago Cubs as a team interested in Guerrero. Any team in need of power from first base would be wise to inquire about the 25-year-old, who has three All-Star appearances and a Gold Glove under his belt already. Bichette could appeal to an even wider range of teams as a solid defensive shortstop with sharp bat-to-ball skills and elite athleticism.

It's about time for the Blue Jays to make a splash. If that splash doesn't involve paying Guerrero and Bichette (and potentially adding another star), then there's a good chance Toronto eventually embraces a rebuild. It's a matter of when — and if the current management will be in place to oversee that rebuild.