MLB insider projects Tarik Skubal could cost Orioles far more than just Jackson Holliday

With the 2024 MLB trade deadline just one week away, teams have solidified themselves as buyers or sellers.

The season is ultimately a lost cause for the Detroit Tigers, who hold a 50-51 record and currently sit 10.0 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in a loaded American League Central division. Despite going on an 11-3 run in their last 14 games, the Tigers have positioned themselves to deconstruct their roster before the trade deadline on July 30.

Detroit has just a 10.8 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs.

Tigers left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal has been one of the lone bright spots on a struggling roster, and he has emerged as the top ranked trade candidate ahead of the deadline. The 27-year-old has been linked to the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers, who are both among favorites for the World Series.

Trading for Tarik Skubal would be costly for the Orioles

The Orioles are the favorites to land Skubal, but trading for the rising star won't be easy. In a hypothetical trade proposed by MLB Network insider Joel Sherman, the Orioles would have to give up second baseman Jackson Holliday and outfielder Heston Kjerstad for Skubal and pitcher Jason Foley.

Skubal is just 27 years old and has two more years of team control remaining on his deal, which makes it more difficult to pry him away from Detroit. It won't be easy to convince the Tigers to trade away a Cy Young-Award-level player, but if there's any team that can do it, it would be the Orioles.

Holliday is the top overall prospect in baseball, and Kjerstad was ranked No. 21 on MLB Pipeline's prospect list earlier this season.

Kjerstad has played well for the Orioles. He has slashed .314/.417/.529 with three home runs and 12 RBIs. Kjerstad suffered an injury against the New York Yankees before the All-Star break but he seems to be healthy again, considering the Orioles activated him on Saturday.

While that may seem like a lot to give up, the Orioles would be getting quite a bit in return. Foley would be a solid option at the back end of the bullpen and provide some rest for Craig Jimbrel.

Skubal ranks second among all qualified starters in ERA (2.34), tied for third in strikeouts (146), and second in WHIP (0.92) and third in K/BB (6.64). He posted a 10-3 record with a 2.41 ERA and 3.4 WAR through the first half of the 2024 season.

MLB reporter Jon Morosi reported on Monday that the Tigers have had a scout watching the Orioles' Triple-A Norfolk affiliate in recent days. Holliday, Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, and Kyle Stowers are all on the Norfolk roster.