The only scenario where the Mets trade Pete Alonso this month

The New York Mets have been through a complete roller coaster ride of a season in 2024. They began the season in atrocious fashion, placing themselves in the prime position to be sellers at the deadline. But. almost like a Hollywood movie, they have risen from the dead and turned their season around, placing themselves firmly in contention to make the postseason.

As of this writing, the Mets sit at 43-44, good for 2.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot. Given that, FanGraphs gives them a 32.6 percent to make the postseason and Baseball Reference gives them a 34.2 percent chance to make it.

With New York in the playoff race, the Mets will be holding onto their star player, Pete Alonso. But if the Mets fall out of the wild card contention, they would be smart to move Alonso before the deadline.

Mets will only look to trade Pete Alonso if they fall out of wild card contention

The market for Pete Alonso would be quite active. He would be one of the bigger stars and one of the most highly sought after players who is available at the deadline. He would net the Mets an incredible return of prospects.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reflected on the lack of star power available at the trade deadline, highlighting Alonso and the only case in which he becomes available.

"It [the trade deadline] also lacks star power unless three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer is traded by the Texas Rangers, or New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso or Chicago Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger are moved," Nightengale wrote. "And Alonso is staying as long as the Mets remain in the wild-card race."

New York has a favorable schedule heading into the All-Star break. They play the Pirates for two more games before returning home to host the Nationals and Rockies in three game sets. They exit the All-Star break with another favorable matchup, this time against the Marlins in a four game set.

If the Mets can remain in firm playoff contention going into their July 23 and July 24 two-game series with the New York Yankees, they will hold onto Alonso. A dream scenario has the Mets sitting at 52-47 as they head into the Subway Series. This record would mean Alonso would finish the season a Met.