3 free agents the Orioles need to sign to come back stronger next year, 2 to avoid

The Baltimore Orioles scored a single run across 18 innings to get eliminated from the postseason by the upstart Kansas City Royals. After establishing themselves as baseball's most exciting underdog story — a team of underpaid young pups with limitless upside — the narratives wheels are spinning in the opposite direction.

The O's have now lost four straight Wild Card games with this group and their last 10 postseason games overall since 2014. This is the sort of dry spell that bothers a fandom — especially when the team is so close to greatness. Baltimore has been a huge tease in recent years, flashing all the talent needed to win a World Series, but failing to deliver once October arrives.

It's unclear what the future holds for this team. Baltimore's farm system still ranks among the very best in baseball and that young talent is coming through the pipeline at record speed. Jackson Holliday was highly inconsistent in his first taste of MLB action, but he should be more stable with each passing year. Colton Cowser might win AL Rookie of the Year. Gunnar Henderson is an MVP candidate at 23 and he's still getting better.

This isn't the last we've heard from Baltimore, but it's clear something has to change. New ownership should, in theory, empower the front office to take an aggressive approach, building upon the cheap, young talent on the roster with more expensive and established vets.

That has never been the Orioles' M.O. in free agency, though, and there are multiple impactful incumbents that Baltimore could struggle to retain on the open market.

Here is who the O's need to sign in order to take the next step — and who the front office should staunchly avoid.

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Orioles need to mount a proper run at Pete Alonso

The Orioles' primary focus will remain on the pitching staff with Corbin Burnes set to enter free agency, but Baltimore's offense was completely anemic in the playoffs. For all the "untapped potential" of this lineup, there isn't much holding it together beyond Henderson and Anthony Santander, the latter of whom is about to become a free agent.

There is understandable trepidation when it comes to shelling out copious amounts of cash for a poor defensive first baseman on the wrong side of 30. Pete Alonso is destined for DH duties one day and the history of players in his vein getting paid is... not great. Baltimore has not been a free agent player for years, so breaking that spell for such a risky signing would break a few brains and qualify as a significant risk.

All that said, Alonso is a grade-A slugger, one of the best power bats of his generation. That is something the O's need, especially from a veteran with even a little bit of verifiable October experience. Alonso has been below his usual standards this season, which equates to .240/.329/.459 slashes and 34 home runs. That would certainly be a boon for the Baltimore offense, especially if Santander bolts.

Ryan Mountcastle has not lived up to expectations this season, so there's room for Alonso to take over first base duties and flourish for one of the American League's deepest, most talent-rich teams. It feels like a matter of time until the O's push it deep into October. Perhaps Alonso can give them the necessary boost.

Orioles should avoid Mets DH J.D. Martinez at all costs

When the Mets inked J.D. Martinez to a one-year deal in free agency, it felt like a steal. Age is obviously a factor with Martinez, but he drove in 103 runs last season to earn his fifth All-Star berth in a six-year span. Age-37 campaign or not, that is impressive production, and it threatened to bump New York's offense to the next level.

The Mets offense has been quite explosive down the stretch, and it's not like Martinez has been a total bust — .235/.320/.406 with 16 home runs in 434 ABs — but it turns out the age factor was quite significant. Martinez has dealt with injuries and the pop he once specialized in hasn't been there. He hasn't seen an unnatural uptick in K's or a decrease in walks; he's just not finding the gaps or rocketing it over the fence like he once could.

Martinez probably has enough left in the tank for another rental contract and perhaps even an everyday role, but the O's need to focus their resources on sustainable weapons. Martinez offers no offensive value, he's DH only, and he's clearly regressing. Baltimore doesn't want to invest meaningful resources into a player who might not even be playable once the postseason arrives.

Orioles should mount a serious run at Braves ace Max Fried

The postseason jokes write themselves, as Max Fried once again imploded on the October stage for the Atlanta Braves, but he's one hell of a pitcher. The O's still need more talent in the starting rotation, even if Corbin Burnes re-signs. Color me skeptical of Baltimore expending the necessary cash to roster both Burnes and Fried, but we are discussing what the O's should do. Spend money, win more games. It's a simple formula.

Baltimore cannot spend without limit, of course, but Fried is 30 years old with a long prime window in front of him. The hard-throwing lefty has been one of the few bright spots for an otherwise depressing Braves team, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 29 starts. Fried earned his second All-Star berth this summer and he's a three-time Gold Glove winner on the mound, for good measure.

Toggling between an elite righty in Burnes and a lights-out lefty in Fried atop the rotation would be pure magic for this O's squad. A lack of pitching depth has bit Baltimore on several occasions, including their Game 2 loss to Kansas City when Zach Eflin only made it through four innings. Injuries piled up this season, with Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, and Kyle Bradish all missing significant time.

That means the O's need contingencies. Fried is more than a contingency — he meaningfully elevates Baltimore's standing in a winnable AL East, and the Braves could be more inclined than ever to let him walk after his postseason misstep.

Orioles should keep away from aging "aces" like Jose Quintana

The Mets' pitching staff has been absolute dynamite down the stretch, and that includes the 35-year-old Jose Quintana. On par with an impressive career, Quintana has been a model of dependability for New York. He appeared in 31 starts this season, posting a 3.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The Orioles need starting pitching and would benefit from Quintana's presence. There's no doubt about it.

Taking into account both impact and price point, Quintana is going to appeal to a lot of contenders this winter. He just won't demand the same long-term money as somebody five years younger than him. Somebody like Max Fried. Quintana can probably be had for a decent number on a one or two-year deal. The risk is mitigated.

So, why should Baltimore steer clear? Well, in short, the O's should aim higher. Quintana can absolutely help — this would not qualify as a "bad" signing — but Baltimore cannot trust that Quintana, who has been on five teams in the last two years, will age with perfect grace. He doesn't have elite strikeout stuff and Quintana has generally plateaued at very good in his MLB career. He's hardly ever unplayable, but Quintana is not the bonafide second ace Baltimore needs (or first ace, depending on Burnes' fate).

We have seen aspiring contenders try to load up on aging vets in the rotation and pay the price (see: Cardinals, St. Louis). Baltimore should stick with the youth movement and look for players who can sustain excellence for several years to come.

Corbin Burnes' return should be priority No. 1 for Baltimore this offseason

Not to end on 'duh,' but duh. The Orioles can't let Corbin Burnes slip away. There has been understandable hand-wringing about the decline of Burnes' patented sweeper in recent weeks, but he put together eight innings of one-run baseball against the Royals on Tuesday. Burnes was the elite, bankable postseason ace Baltimore lacked a season ago. He just didn't get any offensive support, so here we are, talking about the future.

Burnes could command north of $300 million in free agency, which is a lot for a pitcher on the verge of his 30th birthday with apparent concerns about the efficacy of his best pitch. But Burnes is on track for his fifth straight top-10 finish in Cy Young voting. There just has not been a more dependable top-line starter over the last half-decade. Maybe Burnes is cresting, and these next few years will mark the beginning of his decline, but Baltimore cannot afford to let Burnes walk — especially if there isn't an incredibly gifted replacement lined up.

There's a case for letting Burnes walk if the price balloons too high, but that is only viable if somebody like the aforementioned Max Fried or Sonny Gray is coming back in return. And even then, I'd rather have two aces than one. Most of these postseason heavyweights are riding the power of two elite starters; just ask the Royals.

Burnes has done enough over the years to earn the benefit of the doubt and a fat paycheck. The Orioles are starting to walk the walk with new ownership, but Burnes' free agency will be a true test of how committed Baltimore is to winning.