An Orioles-Reds trade to give Baltimore some much-needed starting rotation help

The Baltimore Orioles entered the 2024 season with one of, if not the best rotation in the American League on paper, but thanks to some injuries, it doesn't look like one of the best now. Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez are two awesome pieces, but thanks to injuries to Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer is their third starter.

Albert Suarez is their No. 4 starter, and presumably Cole Irvin is rounding out this rotation. For the Orioles to compete in October, they should add at least one, preferably two starters. With all of the prospect capital they have, they should aim high for a controllable front-end option like Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, but they should also be looking for back-end talent. That's where the Cincinnati Reds step in.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported on Sunday that the Reds are labeling themselves as sellers after getting swept this weekend in Washington. They won't be looking to move controllable players, but those on expiring contracts figure to be very available with the deadline just nine days away as of this writing.

Morosi specifically names Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, two pitchers that Cincinnati signed this offseason, as options. Baltimore should express interest in both, but should prioritize Montas, the more proven starting pitcher of the two.

An Orioles-Reds trade that brings Frankie Montas back to the AL East

Montas was involved in a big blockbuster involving an AL East team, the New York Yankees, back in 2022, but injuries limited him to just nine appearances in parts of two seasons as a Yankee, and he didn't pitch well when he took the mound either. He signed a one-year prove-it deal to join the Reds and has had some good moments, but overall, his numbers are far from stellar.

The right-hander has a 4.85 ERA in 18 starts and 89 innings of work. His 4.79 xERA and 5.04 FIP don't inspire much confidence, but Montas' track record is a solid one, and the Orioles would be buying incredibly low.

Here's what a deal for Montas, a pitcher who is almost certainly going to hit free agency following this season assuming the team's end of his $20 million mutual option isn't exercised.

In this deal, the Reds would be eating most, if not the entire remaining salary on Montas' deal. The point of that would be to get a somewhat intriguing prospect, Alex Pham, who ranks No. 23 on Baltimore's top 30 list according to MLB Pipeline.

Pham's 5.10 ERA at the Double-A level this season is not pretty, but it's so high mainly because of one horrific start in which he allowed nine earned runs in four innings. He has allowed four earned runs or fewer in all but two of his 18 starts overall, which is pretty solid. He made the transition from a reliever to a full-time starter and that has gone pretty well all things considered.

Pham doesn't come with ace potential or anything close to it, but he can potentially be a fit at the back end of a rotation sometime fairly soon. He'd be a solid piece to get for Montas.

While this might seem a bit rich considering Montas hasn't pitched well, there are a couple of things to consider. First, the demand for starting pitching is extreme without many known sellers. Montas is a capable back-end arm that several teams would be interested in if Cincinnati was willing to eat the money.

Second, Montas hasn't been bad for the entire season. His 6.17 ERA in his last nine starts is concerning, but he had a 4.00 ERA in his first 11 starts. A change of scenery going to arguably the best team in the AL could bring out the best in him.

Again, the Orioles need to aim high in addition to a deal like this, but there's no reason why they can't acquire a back-end arm like Montas and a frontline starter as they attempt to make a deep postseason run.