Potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade destination would get Ross Atkins fired

The Toronto Blue Jays continue to hover around the middle of the pack in the AL East. That simply isn't good enough right now. At 33-35, Toronto is 14.0 games behind the first-place New York Yankees and 12.0 games behind the second-place Baltimore Orioles. Barring a shocking turn of events, it's difficult to chart a path to the postseason for this Blue Jays squad.

After going to the 11th hour in Shohei Ohtani negotiations and even poking around Juan Soto trade talks, the Blue Jays' offseason yielded zero tangible growth. Soto went to a division rival and we can all look at the standings. Ohtani opted to stay on the west coast, leaving Toronto holding a $700 million bag it was unwilling to reroute to other potential upgrades.

At a certain point, the Jays will need to make difficult decisions about what happens next. Perhaps the biggest decision is regarding the future of first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is under contract through the 2025 season. If Toronto trades him now, the return package will be quite robust for 1.5 years of a three-time All-Star. Waiting until next season, when his contract is expiring, would be a mistake.

Ross Atkins and the Blue Jays' front office have expressed a desire to extend Guerrero and keep him north of the border long term. That is easier said than done, however, and Guerrero has all the leverage. If he opts to test free agency, the Blue Jays can't feel good about it.

As such, we can expect to hear Guerrero's name ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. As for where he might end up, Jim Bowden of The Athletic has a doomsday scenario in mind.

"The Yankees will monitor the right side of their infield between now and the trade deadline with hopes that both first baseman Anthony Rizzo and second baseman Gleyber Torres start producing at a higher rate. If they don’t, the Yankees will look at possible trade options. Depending on what teams fall out of the race, whether certain players sign contract extensions and other factors, impact players such as Pete Alonso or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could become available at first base."

A warning to Ross Atkins: don't do it.

Yankees trade for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be the end of Blue Jays' front office

We can feel the heat under the Blue Jays' front office from here. Ross Atkins' seat is scorching, and trading arguably his best player within the division to the first-place Yankees surely won't help his standing with ownership or the fanbase. In fact, fan opinion might veer so far negative that Toronto simply cannot employ Atkins without causing an uprising.

It's one thing to send Guerrero to the National League, or to a forgotten midwest contender like the Minnesota Twins. To send him to the Yankees, where he would team up with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton, is simply not advisable. New York probably gets the upper-hand to extend Guerrero a year from now, and he joins a perennial contender that has spent decades lording over the Blue Jays franchise.

We can't forget that Guerrero has explicitly said he will never play for the Yankees. Maybe a few years of futility in Toronto has changed his tune on the subject, but Toronto would literally be sending Guerrero to a team he has openly campaigned against. The optics are bad all around.

Obviously Guerrero would help the Yankees quite a bit, assuming he's willing to show up for work and put any lingering beef to bed. Maybe Vlad Sr. wouldn't like to see his son in pinstripes, but a World Series pursuit can change minds and mend hearts. If Vladdy Jr. wins a ring, odds are there wouldn't be anything bad to say about the Yankees organization in the Guerrero family.

Atkins and the Blue Jays simply cannot do this. Trade him literally anywhere else. Even Baltimore would be more palatable. You just cannot make the rich richer in New York without seriously compromising your reputation.