MLB Rumors: Realistic Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract offers for every interested team

The Yoshinobu Yamamoto inner circle: Yankees, Dodgers, Mets

The Yankees have been heavily cited as favorites to land Yamamoto, with the Dodgers right on their tail. The Mets don't have the Yankees' prestige or the Dodgers' location, but Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets in the MLB and the Mets have made every effort to connect with Yamamoto personally, traveling to Japan and hosting him for dinner at the Cohen's own home.

For all the noise around Yamamoto, the most coveted and sought-after free agent left, his decision will probably — maybe definitely — come down to these three franchises. Such is life in a world where market size and dollar signs rule the day.

Mets predicted offer: 11 years, $375 million

A truly historic offer, and one the Mets should feel good about after multiple positive meetings with Yamamoto. It's clear the Mets deeply respect Yamamoto as a person and would love to steal him out from under the cross-town Yankees. Here's an illuminating tidbit from SNY's Andy Martino:

"Mets people have enjoyed getting to know Yamamoto a bit, and have been highly impressed by his thoughtfulness. Knowing that they are an underdog by virtue of being a less iconic franchise than the others, they are more than willing to give him the time and space he needs to make a major decision."

The Mets liquidated their pitching staff last season, trading both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer for pennies on the dollar. Yamamoto would slot next to longtime friend Kodai Senga atop the Mets' rebuilt 2024 group.

Dodgers predicted offer: 10 years, $330 million

The Dodgers can align Yamamoto's contract with Shohei Ohtani's historic deal, adding the offseason's two most sought-after free agents and increasing their marketing prominence in Japan billionfold. It's an audacious expense, and one the Dodgers have to think carefully about, but there's a benefit to aggressive, liquid ownership in a league without salary cap.

Los Angeles would face a steep CBT penalty after signing Yamamoto (even with $680 million in deferred money, Ohtani's contract counts for over $45 million annually for tax purposes), but he's worth the price of admission. Yamamoto would provide the Dodgers with a gravely-needed top ace to work hand-in-hand with Bobby Miller and Tyler Glasnow, not to mention Ohtani once he's back on the mound in 2025.

Starting the pitching is the last remaining weakness of note on the Dodgers' roster. Yamamoto would end those concerns.

Yankees predicted offer: 10 years, $350 million

The Yankees are the favorite. Yamamoto would be free from Ohtani's shadow, with a chance to pitch for baseball's most storied franchise. He would share the rotation with reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, on a team now prepared to back him up with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Alex Verdugo on offense.

Yamamoto will surely consider alternatives, but the Yankees are the perfect setup for what Yamamoto wants to accomplish. He would have more overall talent around him in Los Angeles (heck, maybe even in Philadelphia), but the Yankees have undeniable star power and the inherent benefit of being the Yankees. Those pinstripes are steeped in history.

So, the "official prediction" here is that Yamamoto signs with the Yankees. It's a historic contract, and the Yankees would house the two most expensive pitching contracts in the MLB. But, it's clear Hal Steinbrenner and the front office are willing to run up the payroll in order to compete next season.