MLB Rumors: Favorite finally emerges for Japanese ace Shota Imanaga

Shota Imanaga is one of the most coveted free agents left on the market. The 30-year-old ace from Japan has until Jan. 11before his posting window closes. Several MLB teams are expected to engage the southpaw in contract discussions, but one clear favorite has emerged.

"It’s all pointing to the [San Francisco] Giants," one source told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. "They missed out on [Shohei] Ohtani and [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto, and although Imanaga isn’t on the same level as those guys, they don’t want to miss out again."

The Giants have been busy in free agency. On top of making sizable offers to both Ohtani and Yamamoto, San Francisco signed Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113 million deal. Late last week, the Giants added to their pitching staff with a trade for 2021 American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray.

That said, Ray is expected to miss a large chunk of next season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. San Francisco will also be without Alex Cobb for a significant period of time. Those absences increase the importance of adding at least one quality innings-eater.

According to Feinsand, Imanaga is "expected" to command a contract that exceeds the five-year, $75 million deal Kodai Senga signed with the New York Mets last offseason.

In 22 starts for the Yokohama Bay Stars in 2023, Imanaga went 7-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. He managed 174 strikeouts in 148.0 innings pitched.

Giants emerge as favorites to sign Shota Imanaga

The Giants face a steep talent deficit in the NL West. The Los Angeles Dodgers have essentially siphoned away all of San Francisco's top offseason targets, adding Ohtani, Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Teoscar Hernandez to a roster that already includes the second and third-place finishers in the National League MVP race.

There is a tremendous amount of pressure on the Giants' front office to get impactful deals across the finish line. The Lee signing was huge, but there are concerns about how quickly his bat will translate to the MLB. Ray is a dynamic talent on the mound, but he is slated to miss several months of action. If San Francisco wants to keep pace under new manager Bob Melvin, more additions are necessary.

At full strength, Ray will assuredly lead the Giants' rotation. Imanaga will probably slot behind or between Logan Webb and Alex Cobb. He's not the top-line ace San Francisco hoped to add early in the offseason, but Imanaga supplies precise location control and gnarly movement on his pitches. He doesn't rely on overwhelming heat, so durability concerns tied to his slender 5-foot-10 frame are probably overblown.

The Giants have the finances necessary to saddle Imanaga with a competitive offer. That appears to be the most likely outcome here.