First Pitch: Tigers need to resist the temptation to attach their worst contract onto a trade with their best

The Tigers already made a mistake signing Javier Baez. They don't need to make another by attaching him to a Tarik Skubal trade.
Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Angels
Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Angels / Katelyn Mulcahy/GettyImages
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In the 2021 offseason, the Detroit Tigers made a major splash, signing Javier Baez to a six-year deal worth $140 million guaranteed. It was a lot of money, but it's hard to say that it didn't make any sense at the time.

In addition to Baez being one of the most fun players in the game to watch, he was coming off of one of the best seasons of his career, slashing .265/.319/.494 with 31 home runs and 87 RBI to go along with 18 stolen bases and his usual wizardry at both middle infield positions. Baez always made head-scratching swing decisions, but his talent was frankly too much to pass on.

The Tigers deserved credit for spending a ton of money to bring in what they thought was a game-changer to try and get back to the postseason for the first time since 2014. Unfortunately, it has not come close to panning out.

Baez is slashing .221/.263/.340 with 27 home runs and 151 RBI in the first three years of his Tigers career, and has been front and center of several memes. His 67 WRC+ is the second-lowest in the majors among qualified players since the start of his Tigers career, which is hard to fathom. He has been worth 1.4 fWAR for his entire Tigers career. He was worth 2.1 fWAR in just 47 games played for the New York Mets in the second half of 2021 before he signed with Detroit.

The worst part about this Baez deal is that this season is just the halfway mark. Baez has three more guaranteed years in his contract worth a total of $73 million. He's set to make over $24 million annually for the next three seasons. Getting that off of their books would be a dream, and there could be an easy way to get that done.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders, and join the discord to get the inside scoop as we near the July 30 MLB trade deadline.

How the Tigers can get rid of the Javier Baez contract once and for all

Outside of simply releasing Baez and eating the money, there is one way that the Tigers can get rid of the Baez contract without being responsible for it. They can attach it to a Tarik Skubal trade.

Skubal has emerged this season and is now arguably the best pitcher in the game. He's the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, and for good reason. The icing on the cake is that he's only 27 years old, and has 2.5 more years of club control.

If he's made available, Skubal will be the most valuable asset out there by a long shot. He might be one of the few players worth giving Jackson Holliday up for. He's that valuable.

Attaching $70+ million of essentially dead money would not be easy, but you'd have to think big market teams would be interested if it meant they ended up with 2.5 guaranteed years of Skubal. As good as that sounds, that would not be a wise thing for the Tigers to do for a couple of reasons.

Tigers would severely impact their potential return by attaching Javier Baez to a Tarik Skubal trade

Let's say the Tigers trade Skubal. Doing so would not be ideal considering his club control and how good he is, but an argument in favor could be made, saying that his value will never be higher than it is right now and the Tigers can get an absurd haul. Both of those points are true.

The Tigers can trade Skubal to a team like the Orioles and get some of the best prospects in the game. Whether Holliday is included or not, the Tigers can acquire multiple high-end position player prospects who are very close to MLB-ready. Attaching Baez might turn the Orioles off completely.

A team like the Dodgers might be willing to take Baez and his money, but what else can the Tigers get? Would the Dodgers be willing to cough up several of their top prospects and potentially young MLB talent while also taking on Baez? That'd be a really hard sell.

The bottom line here is Skubal is one of the most valuable assets in baseball. Baez's contract is arguably the worst in the league. Combining them would still get the Tigers something, but not anything close to what they should be getting back for Skubal.

Everyone loves to clown the Red Sox for getting virtually nothing back for Mookie Betts, and rightfully so. Part of why the package was so underwhelming was because the Red Sox forced the Dodgers to eat part of David Price's massive contract. Had they not done that, they undoubtedly would've gotten more. The Tigers cannot and should not make the same mistake.

Getting off of the Javier Baez contract doesn't mean the Tigers will suddenly go spending

Once upon a time, the Tigers spent like a team invested in winning. They're never going to spend like the big market giants, but they don't have to. They rank 23rd in total payroll this season, though, according to Spotrac. That's not going to cut it.

Who is to say that getting rid of the Baez money will suddenly allow the Tigers to spend money? That'd be the whole reason that they're getting rid of the contract, right?

The Tigers were showing signs of progress last season, winning 78 games. That was their most since winning 86 games back in 2016. They had a strong young pitching staff, solid position players like Riley Greene and Colt Keith, and a proven manager in A.J. Hinch running the ship.

They made moves, adding players like Mark Canha, Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, and Andrew Chafin, but the contracts of Miguel Cabrera and Eduardo Rodriguez came off of their books. They didn't make a big splash despite that, and despite not having a lot of money on their books. Baez and Colt Keith are the only players they're committed to past the 2025 season, yet they felt no desire to spend big.

Even if they get rid of Baez, there's no reason to believe that they'll suddenly turn around and replace Skubal with a big-name pitcher like Corbin Burnes, or a big bat like Alex Bregman.

Taking a hit on what could be a franchise-changing Skubal return by including Baez and his money only to then have to cross your fingers and hope that the Tigers re-invest the money into the team is not a worthwhile gamble.

There's no reason that the Tigers haven't been spending even with Baez aboard. Doing this not only limits their return but simply gives owner Chris Illitch an easy out.

Arguments can be made either way as to whether Detroit should trade Skubal for a ridiculous haul or hold onto him, but only Tigers ownership benefits from adding Baez. The Tigers would not get a haul for Skubal if they attached Baez, and there's no guarantee that ownership would be suddenly willing to spend. Attaching Baez to a Skubal trade, unfortunately, would be a disaster for the Tigers. They're better off releasing the struggling shortstop.

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