Tigers have a clear limit when it comes to selling at trade deadline

After an unexpectedly hot start to the season, the Detroit Tigers are back below .500 at 33-35. It's hard not to be encouraged by the team's overall progress, but once again, reality has set in. The Tigers are not built to contend, at least not yet, which means a fire sale is on the horizon. The MLB trade deadline is July 30, and barring an unexpected win streak, the Tigers' front office will probably spend the next month and a half fielding phone calls.

The NL Central is unexpectedly loaded. Detroit is 11.0 games behind first-place Cleveland (43-23), while Kansas City (40-30) and Minnesota (37-32) are both in the postseason hunt. There's too much talent in the division. Detroit's best bet is to kick the can down the road and reassess in the offseason.

As such, Jim Bowden of The Athletic ($) expects several key players to hit the trade block.

"The Tigers aren’t likely to remain in the race and therefore will probably make trades to build for the future. Among the players they’d deal, starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has the most trade value. They also could trade closer Jason Foley and DH Mark Canha."

One name is notably absent from that list: Tarik Skubal.

Tigers are trade deadline sellers, with one glaring omission in Tarik Skubal

The Detroit bullpen ranks 10th in collective ERA this season. The Tigers are torching opposing bats and keeping runs off the scoreboard.

There's a good chance the trade deadline changes the calculus of Detroit's pitching staff. Jack Flaherty is having his best season to date. Jason Foley is a top-line closer who should have broad appeal in the trade mill. Losing either (or both) would dramatically increase the strain on lesser members of the Tigers' pen.

Despite the desire to reset and retool, however, Tarik Skubal isn't going anywhere. The 27-year-old currently leads the American League in ERA (1.92) and win percentage (88.9), not to mention ERA+ (213), FIP (2.19), and WHIP (0.891). In short, Skubal is having one of the most dominant campaigns in recent history. He is 8-1 on a below .500 team with 96 strikeouts in 79.2 innings pitched. He may be the most dominant individual pitcher in the entire MLB, not to mention the AL Central.

Those are the players you keep around. The Tigers need to build toward the future and Skubal is a foundation to build on, not a patch of drywall to knock down. He's only making $2.65 million this season and is arbitration eligible through the 2026 campaign. Detroit has at least two more years before the possibility of Skubal bolting in free agency becomes a consideration. By then, ideally, the Tigers are a competitive team that can offer Skubal financial stability and competitive satisfaction.

Flaherty has been excellent as the No. 2 starter. Detroit has a solid relief staff. And yet, none of that matters until the offense improves. The Tigers can't expect to win big this season, no matter how thoroughly Skubal dominates his individual appearances. Thus we look ahead, and Skubal is showered in individual praise, rather than celebrating team success.

The Tigers need to finish above .500 and make the playoffs at some point, but it's probably not this season. That should have profound implications on the roster ahead of the trade deadline, but don't expect Skubal is get caught up in the whirlwind. He's the Tigers' crown jewel and will be treated as such.