What it might cost for Yankees to re-sign Juan Soto

Juan Soto is a bit of a unicorn. At the end of this season, he will have seven full major league seasons under his belt, and he will be only 26 years old. If the New York Yankees want to re-sign him, or if any team wants to ink him to a long-term deal, they better have a Brinks truck ready. They will need it.

Except for 2018, when he made his debut with the Nationals in mid-May of 2018, and the COVID-shortened season in 2020, Soto has played at least 150 games. So he's durable. His career slash line is wondrous to behold: .286/.420/.525/.945. His career OPS+, which has a baseline for the average player set at 100, is 157.

He's a three-time All-Star, has three Silver Sluggers, and has finished in the top 10 in the NL MVP voting four times. He "only" has 820 hits, but 669 walks and has struck out just 604 times. He had his first 35-home run season last year at the age of 24 when a lot of players are still toiling away in Triple-A.

How big will Juan Soto's contract be when he signs a new deal this offseason?

Maybe the closest example we have is Mike Trout's deal that went into effect in 2019. He was entering his age 27 season and had a tremendous history. He was heading in the direction of being one of the best players in MLB history. His slash line from 2011 through 2018 was slightly superior to Soto's .308/.416/.573/.990 line. Trout had more hits, home runs, stolen bases, more of everything. He also had missed few games due to injury up to that point.

According to Spotrac, Trout's contract was for 12 years and $426.5 million, including a $20 million bonus. It was an incredible deal for an unbelievable talent. But that was six years ago and some caution has to be applied.

Since then, Trout has played more than 82 games just twice, and not more than 134. His numbers, when healthy, have generally still been outstanding, but he's missed so much time.

As good as Soto is, Trout was better, though the former will be a year younger than the latter was at the time of the signing.

Last offseason, Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million deal. Offensively, his numbers are similar to Soto's, but he's three years older, and, of course, there is the whole pitching thing too. So this isn't quite apples to apples. This offseason, the Royals extended Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year deal worth $288 million. Although Witt is just 23, this also isn't quite the same because Kansas City was buying out some arbitration years.

In truth, something close to Trout's deal might get it done. Yes, it was inked six years ago, but at the time, Trout was still MIKE TROUT, a player a few ticks better than Soto. Figure in inflation, and maybe you're looking at 12 years, $480 million. That sets the bar at $40 million a year on average. This deal would match Aaron Judge's contract with the Yankees in average annual value.

Can the Yankees afford another monster contract?

According to Spotrac, the Yankees are contractually committed to six players in 2025 for $169.166 million. Add $17 million more if they activate their club option on Anthony Rizzo. That figure falls to $156.163 million in 2026, It drops to $128.833 in 2027, and $25 million less in 2028, if the Yankees pass on their club option on Giancarlo Stanton (a given).

Remember, those numbers are for six players in 2025, five in 2026, four in 2027, and probably three in 2028. They still need to fill out the other 20 some spots on their roster.

There are probably only a handful of teams willing to pay any player that much - the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, maybe the Red Sox, Cubs, Giants, Phillies, and Padres. Can other teams afford to? Probably. Will they be willing? Not likely.

It will most likely take 12 years and approximately $480 million to sign Juan Soto. Will the Yankees be willing to add another monster contract? Will Soto want to sign with the Yankees? So far, he seems to be a hit in New York. He is also close friends with teammate Gleyber Torres, who is also a free agent. Will that complicate matters?

Right now, it seems as if Soto and the Yankees are a good fit for each other, but it is going to come down to money. Baseball is, when it comes down to it, a business.