MLB standings by Pythagorean Luck: Cardinals shockingly among luckiest teams

Often this time of year, at the end of May, there are several MLB teams underperforming or overperforming preseason expectations. Many factors can contribute to this, but one in particular has to do with luck.

Last season, we saw the Miami Marlins find a way to squeak into the postseason despite 57 fewer runs than they allowed. They had the tenth-worst run differential in the majors. Meanwhile, on the flip side, the San Diego Padres scored 104 more runs than they allowed, yet they missed the postseason and only finished two games over .500.

This isn't to say the Marlins didn't deserve to make the playoffs, but they sure did seem to get a bit lucky. It's hard to envision a team with a negative run differential finding a way to make the playoffs, yet that's what happened.

There is always at least a little bit of luck in any given baseball game. With that in mind, let's take a look at what the standings would look like if they were ordered by Pythagorean Luck - the difference between the regular record and the Pythagorean record (record based on run differential).

MLB standings: Divisional standings based on Pythagorean Luck

AL East

Seeing the Tampa Bay Rays under .500 two months into the season is surprising, and seeing them lucky to only be two games under .500 is downright shocking. Yes, they've dealt with injuries, but it looks like the Rays might actually be taking a step back for the first time in a long time in the regular season.

AL Central

Poor Chicago White Sox fans. They already have the worst record in the majors and it turns out, they should be even worse based on their run differential. On the flip side, the Kansas City Royals would be in first place in the AL Central if the standings were ordered by Pythagorean record. Cleveland Guardians fans can be thankful that luck is, indeed, a thing.

AL West

On paper, the AL West looked like one of the toughest divisions in baseball, but so far this season it has been anything but. Only one team, the Seattle Mariners, has a record over .500, and none of them have a positive run differential. The division is wide open, it'll be interesting to see which team will run away with it.

NL East

The Philadelphia Phillies have taken a commanding lead in the NL East and their elite run differential confirms that despite a little bit of luck, they should be leading the division by a substantial amount. With that being said, what is the best record in baseball is not the best Pythagorean record.

NL Central

The St. Louis Cardinals' run differential suggests they should be ten games under .500, yet they're only two games under entering play on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds' run differential suggests they should be right at .500 yet they're six games under. Luck can be a cruel thing.

NL West

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the second-best record in the majors and the fifth-best record in baseball, yet their run differential suggests that they should be even better. That's a frightening thought for the 29 other teams.