MLB standings ordered by remaining strength of schedule: Cardinals, Royals uphill climb

We are approaching the home stretch of the 2024 MLB season and man, we are in for one heck of a finish. The baseball gods have blessed us with incredibly close races up and down the standings.

As of this writing, there is a tie for first place in both the National League (Phillies and Dodgers at 69-49) and the American League (Yankees and Orioles at 70-49). In the AL, there isn't a single division lead of more than 3.5 games, including ties in the East (see above) and the West (Astros, Mariners).

The National League is a bit more splintered, but that just means the Wild Card race is WIDE OPEN. There are six teams within five games of the final Wild Card spot, which is currently occupied by the Braves of all teams. This season has thrown us for many, many loops, and there's still plenty of uncertainty on the horizon.

As the MLB standings take shape, it's essential to look ahead, to project forward. It's all about how strong a team finishes. One of the best indicators for future team success is strength of schedule. Those facing a more daunting slate of teams down the stretch face a steeper uphill climb, while those with easy schedules have the chance to make up ground.

The schedule can make or break a Wild Card pursuit, or determine which teams ends up in first place. The schedule can therefore make or break the standings.

Here are both leagues ordered by strength of schedule in the final months of the regular season. The lower the better.

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National League standings ordered by strength of schedule

A brutal draw for the Cards, who are 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot as of this writing. St. Louis has already been on a slight downturn lately. While there is no doubting the raw talent on the Cardinals roster, it's unclear if this group is built to withstand the heat to come. We could see St. Louis fade down the stretch as a result.

Meanwhile, it's worth noting that the three teams currently occupying the NL Wild Card slots — Arizona, San Diego, and Atlanta — all have favorable draws here, with the latter two both well under .500 the rest of the way. That could make it challenging for teams to play catch-up.

Also, how lucky are the Phillies, who need as much luck as possible in the weeks to come? It has been brutal since the All-Star break for Philadelphia (7-15), but the best team in the National League has the second-weakest schedule from here on out. Remember when the Phils played sub-.500 teams for like two months to start the season? It has been quite a fortuitous schedule for Rob Thomson's squad in 2024.

American League standings ordered by strength of schedule

The Yankees and the O's luck out. The rich get richer. And so forth.

At the top here, it's particularly grave news for Kansas City. The Royals are currently tied with Minnesota for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. For all the magic Bobby Witt Jr. can muster, it's hard to overcome an innately competitive schedule. It will take real willpower and a show of strength from the Royals to edge out their rivals here.

It's also worth noting, on balance, how much weaker the AL schedules are than the NL schedules. The American League has been far and away superior overall this season, so it's fascinating to see this disparity — in part because several NL teams are slated to battle AL powerhouses in the weeks and months to come. Also, in part, because the National League is starting to catch up.

Strength of schedule is not everything, of course, but it is... a lot. As we get down to it, and as the autumn weather creeps in, be mindful of who your team is playing. It could make all the difference.