MLB trade regrade: Revisiting Marlins-Twins deal after Luis Arraez gets flipped to Padres

In January 2023, the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins made a blockbuster trade. The Marlins acquired Luis Arraez, the reigning AL Batting Champ from the Twins and shipped off Pablo Lopez and two prospects to Minnesota.

It looked like a great deal for both sides at the time of the trade, as the Marlins needed a bat the caliber of Arraez and the Twins added to a rotation that was getting ready to lose Sonny Gray. Both players are under control for multiple years, with Arraez being a free agent in 2026 and Lopez hitting the market in 2028.

The first season for each player made it look like a win-win situation. While the Marlins are still rebuilding, Arraez won yet another batting title, hitting .354 with an .861 OPS. In Minnesota, Lopez stuck out 234 batters, second most in the AL, and finished seventh in the AL Cy Young voting.

Despite the first year looking good for both teams, the Marlins currently sit as one of the worst teams in baseball and have already dealt Arraez again as they begin to blow it up. When looking at the trade from last season, it makes it pretty clear who the winner is.

MLB Trade Grades: Regrading Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez deal for Twins and Marlins

The Arraez-Lopez trade was pretty universally thought of as a win for both teams at the time of the trade, and both players performed for their new teams in their first year. Lopez helped the Twins to win the division and pitched in Game One of the AL Wild Card. Arraez finished eighth in NL MVP voting and was a big contributor for a pesky Marlins team that nearly made the Wild Card round.

With the Marlins' poor start, they have been in the thick of trade rumors and decided to get started early. They shipped Arraez to the Padres for four minor leaguers, including two of their top ten prospects. The headline of the haul is Dillon Head, who was the Padres first-round pick in 2023.

Head is just a 19-year-old, but he has a plus hit tool and an elite 80-grade running tool, according to MLB Pipeline. Despite a four-for-one trade, the consensus seems to be that the Padres are the winners of this trade. So where does that leave Miami? It's pretty clear: they are losers in both trades.

While they looked like they might have been improving last year, this trade signals that they are getting ready to blow it up once again. They're already back 13.5 games and it shouldn't surprise anyone if Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera are also dealt.

That means the Marlins traded for one year of Luis Arraez despite him still having controllable years, and they traded a great pitcher, who is also under control for multiple seasons. Not to mention that, according to ESPN, they are still going to pay his salary at $10.6 million.

All in all, the Marlins thought they were going to get the best contact hitter in baseball to go along with a young, rebuilding team. That didn't work out and it's already over, starting another new rebuild. While the Twins and Padres won the trades, Miami is left in the dust and are once again in a familiar rebuilding situation.

Twins Trade Regrade: B+ | Marlins Trade Regrade: F