The Moonshot: Below replacement All-Stars, Braves–Dodgers, Sad Vibes Power Rankings

Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.

Welcome to The Moonshot.

1. Fangraphs identified five former MLB All-Stars performing below replacement level so far this season — Paul Goldschmidt, Randy Arozarena, Luis Arraez, Nick Castellanos and Gleyber Torres. Who is most likely to turn things around and have the biggest positive impact over the rest of the season?

John Buhler: It pains me to say this, but it is probably Nick Castellanos. He has always been able to hit since coming up in the Detroit Tigers organization. He is on arguably the best team of this struggling quintet. With plenty of protection around him in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, I am sure he will get back to parking balls in the bleachers in between awkward moments in the booth from guys like John Kruk and Thom Brennaman.

Terrence Jordan: Give me Arozarena. He’s been the heartbeat of the Rays since he took the playoffs by storm in 2020, which was somehow one year before he won A.L. Rookie of the Year. The Rays are two games under .500, but they won 99 games a year ago, so we know that won’t last. Arozarena is only 29 and still in his prime. A .143 average through over 100 at-bats is definitely concerning, but he’s been one of the most clutch players in baseball his entire career. He’ll turn it around, and when he does, so will the Rays.

Robert Murray: I’ll go with Luis Arraez. Besides, he’s still hitting .303/.356/.369 with a .725 OPS this season. He has yet to hit a home run and only has three RBI, but how much of the little run production is a result of a mediocre team around him? The trade buzz around him this spring was real and I think, if he is indeed moved to a contending team, that he could watch his numbers soar.

Zach Rotman: It has to be Randy Arozarena. Through the first 30 games of this season, the Rays outfielder is slashing .143/.220/.241 with three home runs and nine RBI. He has a 39 WRC+ which is the fourth-lowest mark among qualified players. This man is not only a postseason hero and one of the most fun players to watch when he’s seeing the ball well, but he was an All-Star in 2023 and has posted a WRC+ of at least 124 in each of his three full seasons. Eventually, he’s going to turn it around and when he does, watch out.

2. On Monday, who will we be talking about as the hero of this weekend’s series between the Braves and Dodgers?

John Buhler: Because I cannot possibly pick the Los Angeles Dodgers, give me my hometown Atlanta Braves doing work on their West Coast road trip. Since everybody and their brother wants Matt Olson to do something at the plate besides strikeout on the reg, he is my pick to click.

Terrence Jordan: In a battle between the two favorites in the National League, I’ll take Freddie Freeman to haunt his old team. Freeman is often lost in the shuffle due to the presence of Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, but he’s as professional a hitter as there is in the game. Since moving westward, he’s hit .320 with three homers in 13 games against his former team, and with Will Smith raking behind him, he’ll see some pitches to hit.

Robert Murray: I’ll go with one of the hottest players in baseball: Mookie Betts. He’s hitting .377/.479/.639 with six home runs, 23 RBI, and a 1.119 OPS in 31 games this season. And in a series that will feature many superstars, I expect Betts to shine brightest.

Zach Rotman: Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers to not only get all of that money but to win. This weekend's series against the Braves is arguably the biggest series of his MLB career, and I don’t think that’s crazy to say. These are easily the two best teams in the National League if not all of baseball. I fully expect Ohtani to put on a show when the lights are brightest and lead the Dodgers to a big series win over the MLB-leading Braves.

3. Which team is currently atop your Sad Vibes Power Rankings — Astros, Rockies, Marlins or White Sox?

John Buhler: I could go in a lot of different directions with this, but the Colorado Rockies are completely hopeless. I bet Kris Bryant regrets taking all that money to watch Blue Moon get brewed from the Coors Field bleachers. Watching this team try and be good is like watching one of Dinger’s relatives hatch from an egg. The deciding factor here for me is Rockies fans are probably Denver Broncos fans, and possibly Colorado Buffaloes fans. That is pure misery. At least y’all have the Denver Nuggets and the Colorado Avalanche to watch for a few more weeks.

Robert Murray: The saddest vibes belong to the Miami Marlins. They made the postseason last year! They appeared to be on the rise. Then they fired Kim Ng after trying to hire a president of baseball operations above her and hired Peter Bendix to head baseball operations. They did little to improve the major-league roster this winter and have since lost Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez for the season while Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk are both on the Injured List. Oh, and they are 6-24 entering Monday. The vibes are LOW in Miami.

Terrence Jordan: I was tempted to go with the Astros because they’re the only team on the list that isn’t used to losing, but the White Sox have been so historically bad that they’re the only right answer. A recent three-game sweep of the Rays doubled their season win total, and yet at 6-23, they’re somehow still on pace to finish with over 130 losses. Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada have only 67 at-bats between them due to early-season injuries, and Moncada isn’t expected back for months. To make matters worse, the Cubs are thriving across town. At least the Southsiders have Caleb Williams to look forward to.

Zach Rotman: Can you believe that the Miami Marlins made the postseason in 2023? This past offseason they fired Kim Ng out of nowhere, did nothing to improve what was an already flawed team, and the result is a 7-24 record entering play on Wednesday. It was easy to expect this Marlins team to take a step back, but this kind of poor start is unprecedented. With Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez out for the season, their offense remaining anemic, and their farm system being one of the worst in all of baseball, there isn’t much to look forward to for Marlins fans.