The Moonshot: Historical stats outliers and the race for the best record in baseball
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
Aaron Judge is threatening to hit 60 home runs. Shohei Ohtani has a 50/50 season in play. Elly De La Cruz could be the first player since 1988 to steal 80+ bases. Which outlier stat do you find most fascinating this season?
Zach Pressnell: I’m going to have to go with what Elly De La Cruz is doing for the Cincinnati Reds. Judge may hit 60 homers, but he did that a few seasons ago. I don’t see Ohtani getting too close with a 50/50 season. Elly has the chance to go 30 homers, 80 stolen bases which has never been done in the history of baseball. Acuña went 40/70 last year and a 30/80 season is just about as impressive to me. We’re in an era of the long ball, so to see a player run with such reckless abandon while being so efficient and exciting on the bases is generational to watch.
Robert Murray: Elly De La Cruz. How many players can realistically steal 80 bags? He’s at 59 now. Crazy. If he puts up 30 homers and 80 stolen bases, that’ll be one of the best - and most unique - stat lines in baseball history. There’s a reason he called himself the most exciting player in baseball. He’s proving it, and what’s scary for the rest of the sport is he’s only getting better.
Terrence Jordan: I think we as baseball fans really take Aaron Judge for granted. Hitting 60 homers is a big deal! Only Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire have ever done it multiple times, and by all indications, Judge has put up his prolific power numbers without the help of … well, you know. Don’t just yawn and overlook it, because this is historic stuff. Just as Roger Maris had Mickey Mantle to provide protection, the presence of the red-hot Juan Soto behind Judge in the lineup means he’ll see more pitches than he has any right to. I like his chances of getting to 60 again.
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Who wins more games before Sept. 29, the end of the MLB regular season — the Chicago White Sox or the Chicago Bears?
Zach Pressnell: As funny as it would be for the answer to be the Bears, it just has to be the White Sox. The White Sox HAVE to win six games out of their last 40 games, right? I can imagine that the Bears could win about three, maybe four of these six games. The White Sox simply have to win more than the Bears in this span of time.
Robert Murray: It would be hilarious if it was the Bears, but the White Sox have far more opportunities to win games than the Bears. Besides, I know they have Caleb Williams and a great trio of weapons but, like, the Bears are the Bears. Give me the White Sox.
Terrence Jordan: The White Sox should be sponsored by Chico’s Bail Bonds at this point, but even they should be able to stumble their way to a handful of wins between now and the end of September, right? The real question is, will anyone notice? The amount of Chicago sports fans currently crammed into the Bears bandwagon has to be an OSHA violation at this point. It will be a mercy when this baseball season is finally laid to rest.
Just 2.5 games separate the top six teams in the MLB standings. Who finishes with the best record in baseball this year?
Zach Pressnell: I’m going to go with the Baltimore Orioles here. The Yankees have a struggling rotation and they may have just lost Jazz Chisholm for the season. The Dodgers lineup is great, but their pitching staff can’t stay healthy, especially after losing River Ryan to TJ surgery. The Phillies are great, but I just give the edge to Baltimore. Santander may hit 45 home runs this year which is just a ridiculous statement to make. Jackson Holliday belongs in the big leagues and he can’t stop barreling baseballs. I firmly believe that Coby Mayo will come around at some point. He’s such a talented hitter that an 0-for-15 stretch to begin his career is just mind-boggling. The Padres are 3.5 games back from the league lead right now, but I honestly don’t hate them as a dark horse option to streak up the standings in the coming weeks.
Robert Murray: I’ll go with the Los Angeles Dodgers. They really haven’t hit their stride yet this year, yet have a top-3 record in baseball. Come the final month of the regular season, I expect that to change, and the additions of Max Muncy and Tommy Edman will only help. The other option I considered was the Baltimore Orioles — they have the best collection of young talent in baseball — but I’m betting on Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and others to give the Dodgers the edge.
Terrence Jordan: The race for baseball’s best record is a wild one this year. No team is even on pace for 97 wins right now, so this comes down to who can get hot to end the season. I’ll take the Phillies because of their pitching depth. Ranger Suarez has missed some time with back soreness, but he should be back soon. Add him to a rotation that already features Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez, and you’ve got a tried and true method of surviving the dog days of summer. As the innings accumulate and other teams hit a wall, the Phils should have what it takes to stay the course. Also look out for the Guardians, who don’t get 1/10th the attention that the Yankees, Dodgers, or Phillies do, yet keep on trucking anyway. Cleveland is currently a half-game up for the best record in baseball, and I’d love to see them cross the finish line ahead of their more heralded peers.
Robert Murray notebook:
- The Rockies have placed catcher Elias Diaz on waivers, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported.
- Rich Hill threw for a few teams last week and one source said he looked “really good,” noting his curveball remained a plus-pitch for the veteran left-hander.