The Moonshot: Which teams are most desperate to make the playoffs?
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
What storyline are you most excited to follow over the final quarter of the MLB season?
Terrence Jordan: The playoff race in general is going to be a wild one, but I’ll be focusing on the National League West. The Dodgers were thought to be invincible after landing Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernandez this offseason, but their pitching staff has been decimated by injuries and Mookie Betts has missed extended time. This has opened the door ever-so-slightly for the Diamondbacks and Padres, and both teams are kicking it in. Arizona had won 10 of 11 before getting swept by the Rays this weekend, and San Diego is 14-4 in its last 18. The D-Backs and Padres own the top two Wild Card slots in the National League, but I’ll be fascinated to see if they can catch the Dodgers for the division crown.
Zach Pressnell: The New York Yankees, and more specifically Juan Soto. I believe that the ending of this season is going to have a tremendous impact on where Soto opts to go in free agency this offseason. If the Bronx Bombers can secure the division and then make a serious run at the World Series, I can’t imagine Soto opting to go anywhere else. With this having an impact on one of the biggest free-agent signings of this century, I’m excited to see how Soto and the Yankees finish the season.
Cody Williams: I’m going to call this the “hanging-on-for-dear-life” crew that I’m watching over the final quarter of the season. The AL East has been a back-and-forth race atop the division all year between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles and both seem to be misstepping at similar rates, so who can do so the least to take the crown? Similarly, we’ve seen the division leads for the Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers all dwindle while the Seattle Mariners have already squandered theirs dramatically. Will that happen in the AL Central, NL East or NL West? It’s entirely possible and watching that drama unfold has me with popcorn ready.
Zachary Rotman: Admittedly, I am not a fan of the batting average statistic. A single and home run should not be valued the same way, which is why OPS is a better statistic to look at. With that being said, though, can we just appreciate what Bobby Witt Jr. is doing? This might not be a popular storyline (yet), but he’s slashing .448/.504/.819 in 29 second-half games with nine home runs and 29 RBI. He’s hitting .448 in over one month of action. Can he hit at roughly a .450 clip down the stretch? Plus, in Witt’s case, he’s hitting for power too. It isn’t only singles. Aaron Judge should be considered the MVP favorite, but with how Witt has been playing especially lately, he’s making it interesting.
Robert Murray: Does the Seattle Mariners’ offense step up or does it waste an incredible season by the rotation? Because it sure looks like the dominant pitching is going to go to waste. The Mariners led the division by 10 games on June 18. Now, on August 22, they trail the Astros by five games. All because of a brutally bad offense. If the offense doesn’t step up, and the Mariners miss the postseason, it could lead to conversations about Scott Servais’ status as manager. It definitely bears watching.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason
We’re on track for an almost unbelievable level of parity this MLB season. Should a year like this — potentially without a single 97-win team — be the platonic ideal?
Terrence Jordan: Yes and no. On the one hand, it’s great from a fan’s perspective to have so many teams still alive in late August. On the other, if every team is more or less the same, it makes things less interesting. Baseball’s playoffs have been exciting in recent years in large part due to the upsets. Think the Phillies taking out the Braves two years in a row or the Diamondbacks sweeping the Dodgers last year despite having 16 fewer regular season wins. With such widespread parity, no postseason result this year would be a shock. That’s less fun.
Zach Pressnell: Personally, I think it’s awesome. The only reason that it does, kind of, suck is because of why it’s happening. The injuries to the Dodgers and Braves have destroyed any chance of these two teams running away with a 108+ win season. But, the idea that any team in the postseason can win it is so exciting to me. It also led to an extremely confusing, yet exciting trade deadline where there were so many different teams on the brink of competing. Here we are in late August and there are still division races and wild card races going on. How exciting is that?
Cody Williams: At the risk of sounding like an elder statesman of this earth telling the youths to get off my lawn, I don’t think it’s the platonic ideal because I truly don’t think regular season records matter beyond just getting into the postseason. Three teams (Braves, Orioles, Dodgers) cleared the 100-win threshold in the 2023 season. The World Series featured the 90-win Rangers beating the 84-win Diamondbacks. The two 116-win teams in MLB history (the record for most in a single season) — the 1906 Chicago Cubs and 2001 Seattle Mariners didn’t win a World Series. It’s a great number to put on the page but I’m also just not sure how much it really matters. Having said that, it seems as if a 97-or-below win logjam only creates more entertainment and unknowns, which I think every baseball fan can agree they want.
Zachary Rotman: The only possible answer here is yes, this should be the platonic ideal. Only one division, the NL Central, feels truly out of reach. The second-place team in the other five divisions are 6.0 games back or fewer, and neither Wild Card race is finished yet either. The trade deadline might be more boring without many clear sellers, but many postseason races will come down to the wire this season. That’s fun!
Robert Murray: Absolutely. It’s great for baseball. There are so many good teams — you can make the case for 10ish teams to be in the World Series — and it’s going to make the final month of the regular season and the postseason exciting and unpredictable. It’s what baseball needs and should make this one of the most thrilling postseasons in recent memory.
Which team in the Wild Card race needs to make the playoffs the most?
Terrence Jordan: I know I’m biased, but I have to go with the Mets. Most Mets fans entered this season with tempered expectations after the team failed to make a splash in free agency. “It’s a transition year,” we were told. That was all well and good until Grimace showed up and the team went on a tear to get back in the race. Now Mets fans have been given the most dangerous thing they could ever receive: hope. Guns ‘n Roses had November Rain. Mets fans have September pain. It’s nothing new, but that doesn’t mean it would hurt any less this time around.
Zach Pressnell: Hands down the San Diego Padres. Let me preface, I think they will make it and I really think they’re one of the best teams in the league. But if they find a way to spiral down the standings over the last few weeks, 2024 would be such a disaster for them. After going out and spending at the deadline the way they did, offering multiple top ten prospects for the rental closer Tanner Scott, this team has to make all that spending worth it. They’re going to have to deal with Betts and Ohtani for years to come, so they need to strike while the fire is hot this season.
Cody Williams: I’ll avoid my blatant bias toward the Boston Red Sox here, largely because this was a team not even projected to be in a playoff race. So need would be too strong a word. But I am going to look at the team that the Sox are trying to chase down, the Kansas City Royals. Another team buoyed by a young superstar in Bobby Witt Jr., the organization has already invested in him as the future. But what about beyond that? There is talent in the system but after a relatively aggressive trade deadline, making the playoffs could and should be absolutely crucial to ensuring continued investment from the Royals front office.
Zachary Rotman: It’s the San Diego Padres. Armed with a four-game lead as of this writing they should make it, but they’re the team that really must get in. A.J. Preller made blockbuster deals before the season, during the season, and at the trade deadline to try and make this team as formidable as it can be. Yes, they traded Juan Soto, but they also used some of what they got to land Dylan Cease and traded so many intriguing prospects for players like Luis Arraez, Jason Adam, and Tanner Scott. Nobody is expecting them to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, but as we saw in 2022, they don’t need to win the division to advance in the postseason. Not getting in at all after doing what they’ve done trade-wise would be a disaster and could cost Preller his job.
Robert Murray: I’ll go with the Arizona Diamondbacks. They are one of baseball’s hottest teams and their second-half surge is eerily reminiscent of what happened in 2023: where they got hot at the right time, got into the postseason, and represented the National League in the World Series. No NL team has separated itself this season and there’s a shot that the Diamondbacks are able to do it once again. If they do, or even advance deep into the postseason once again, it will further bolster general manager Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo’s cases as perhaps the best leadership duo in baseball.
Robert Murray notebook:
- It would hardly be a surprise to see Dom Smith, recently released by the Red Sox, sign with a team soon.
- Catcher Elias Diaz is drawing interest after being released by the Colorado Rockies. One team that could make sense is the San Francisco Giants.
feed