The Moonshot: Surprises and MLB Trade Deadline predictions

Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.

Welcome to The Moonshot.

1. What’s more surprising — that the Phillies are on pace to win 113 games, or that the Astros are on pace to win 66?

Roger Castillo: The Astros’s current pace. Despite this being a veteran team, I am surprised to see them struggling to maintain consistency day in and day out. Their ability to develop talent in their minor league system has been a source of strength but they are near the bottom as far as prospect rankings are concerned and that is alarming. They don't have any young, promising bats on the way. It may be time to start over. 

Zachary Rotman: Nothing is more surprising than the Houston Astros being on a 66-win pace as of now. The Astros were seen as potential World Series favorites even before signing Josh Hader and forming one of the best late-game bullpen trios that we’ve seen in recent memory on paper. They had one of the best and deepest rotations in the league, had a loaded lineup, and even upgraded at manager, at least on paper. Nothing has gone the way they planned, and many are to blame for that.

Terrence Jordan: While I don’t think the Phillies are going to win 113 games, it’s not a surprise that they’re off to such a hot start and currently lead the NL East. They’ve knocked the Braves out of the playoffs the last two years, they have one of the best rotations in baseball, and they’ve feasted on an easy early schedule. The struggles of the Astros, on the other hand, are a shock. Houston has won the AL West six of the past seven years, and their worst postseason result in that time is losing in the ALCS. That’s insane! I think it’s too early to throw their season in the trash can (pun intended), but until their pitching gets on track (the only teams in baseball with a worse ERA are the Angels, Marlins, and Rockies), they’ll continue to languish behind the Rangers and Mariners.

John Buhler: Houston has a problem. The Astros are not good. Apparently, Dusty Baker was the duct tape that was holding it together. While I recognize that the Phillies are an excellent baseball team, even I know that being on pace to win 113 games is not sustainable. They will pull back at some point, but not all that much. As for Houston, I have a hard time seeing them turning this thing around. They haven’t been this bad in over a decade. I guess this is the end.

2. Get loose with one wild prediction for the MLB Trade Deadline.

Roger Castillo: The Detroit Tigers will trade their pitching depth for offense. Scott Harris has not been aggressive at all when it comes to making a move and the way he was embarrassed by the entire Eduardo Rodriguez situation at the deadline in which they had a deal in place with the Dodgers before he nixed it because he didn't want to go to the west coast. I think he breaks the trend because he has really no other choice. Detroit can't continue to waste all this good pitching, can they?

Zachary Rotman: The Toronto Blue Jays will tear it down. I don’t know if they’ll go as far as to trade one or both of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, but they’ll make some major moves with some of the team’s veterans approaching free agency. What they have is simply not working. Their rotation is among the league’s best, but their lineup has drastically underperformed and their farm system is mostly underwhelming. It’s hard to envision them selling, but barring a shocking turnaround, that’s what should happen at the very least.

Terrence Jordan: The Cubs go all-in at the deadline. It’s clear from the Craig Counsell hire and the Cody Bellinger signing that the Cubs are done being second-class citizens in the National League, and with the Valenzuela-like emergence of Shota Imanaga, there are some in Wrigley that are already envisioning a postseason run. There are several teams, such as the Marlins, A’s, and the crosstown rival White Sox, with neon “Fire Sale” signs flashing, and with the No. 2-ranked farm system according to MLB.com, Chicago is in a unique position to take advantage. Look for them to make multiple meaningful moves.

John Buhler: Houston will be sellers at the deadline. The Astros have hit the end of their competitive life cycle. While I cannot say for certain what players will be dealt, I think it serves the franchise to sell high on high-priced assets, or guys who are playing on expiring contracts. These players know what it takes to win in October. Therefore, any team in dire need of a life in that department should give the Astros’ front office a call in the next few months. It’ll be worth it.

3. What’s your favorite quirky stat from the first two months of the MLB season?

Roger Castillo: The latest, from Statcast, Batspeed. The amount of cameras involved in getting the information, the categories alone in what makes a good hitter..good, is pretty impressive. From swing length to sweet spot, there is more to the science of a good swing. For example, the bat speed average that first came out. As Jeff Passan of ESPN pointed out, the best bat speed for the best hitter in baseball is 75.4 MPH (Shohei Ohtani) and the worst hitter in baseball (Javier Baez) is the same. (Javier Baez). I love this game. Just another layer to add to make it much more intriguing. 

Zachary Rotman: It just ended which is a shame, but after leading the National League with 34 home runs allowed in 2023, Washington Nationals pitcher Trevor Williams did not allow his first of this season until the second inning of his last start on Tuesday. He had gone 37.2 innings without allowing a home run and was the only pitcher who hadn’t allowed a long ball with at least 35 innings pitched. I don’t know if that’s more shocking than it is quirky, but it shows that you just never know what to expect in this sport.

Terrence Jordan: I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that the Rockies trailed at some point in 37 straight games dating back to last season. That means that not once in that stretch did Colorado shut an opponent out, and on the few occasions they scored first, they always gave up the lead. That’s impossible to do no matter how bad you are and make no mistake, the Rockies were extremely bad to begin the season. Contrast that with today, where Bud Black’s group is the hottest team in baseball with seven straight wins. Baseball sure is a weird sport.

John Buhler: Stats do nothing for me. If you’ve read any of my writing about college football, the NFL or the Braves, you know what I am all about. The only stats I care about are wins and losses, as well as what players make because it all comes down to money in the end. So to try and answer this question, I’ll posit two thoughts from over in Braves Country.

It is absolutely ridiculous that the Boston Red Sox are paying $17 million for Chris Sale to perform like this. I haven’t seen him play this well since his peak years in Chicago. He is playing truly unencumbered baseball, and it has been utterly spectacular to watch every fifth day. Thanks for fronting the majority of the bill, Boston. You’re doing great, sweetie! Bless your heart!

My other thought is what Marcell Ozuna has done at the plate over his last 100 games or so. He went from being persona non grata in Atlanta to being one of the best hitters in all of baseball. Not only is he hitting well over .300 this season with more than 40 runs batted in, but Atlanta has a club option on him for $16 million for 2025. Guess who is going to check yes, Juliet?!

Alex Anthopoulos is playing five-dimensional chess and is stuffing every other baseball front-office nerd into a locker. We are talking about a combined $33 million working 100 percent in the Braves’ favor over the next two seasons. Who has it better than Anthopoulos these days?