The Moonshot: Toughest MLB playoff matchups and picking breakout stars
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
The Yankees are, ostensibly, the World Series favorites in the AL. Who is the toughest potential matchup waiting for them in the earlier rounds of the playoffs?
Terrence Jordan: The Yankees may think they want revenge against the Astros in the playoffs, but they should be careful what they wish for. Houston has knocked them out of the playoffs all four times they’ve met, the most recent time being a humiliating four-game sweep two years ago. Joe Espada’s club has the best record in the American League since the All-Star break, and while Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker may not be able to match Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, they might be the next best thing. I also prefer the Astros pitching, especially in the bullpen, where Josh Hader is far superior to whatever closer the Yankees plan to trot out.
Zachary Rotman: I am also going to say the Houston Astros. Sure, the Yankees went 6-1 against their AL rivals including a four-game sweep on the road to begin the 2024 campaign, but the team they swept in late March is nowhere near the same team that the Astros are now. At 71-50, the Astros have the best record in the AL since May 1 and are deep in every facet of the game. Combining their incredible roster and their past postseason dominance, especially against these Yankees, New York should want no part of the ‘Stros.
Zach Pressnell: I’m going to play devil’s advocate here and say the Cleveland Guardians. Jose Ramirez is one of the biggest underrated stars in the game, quietly putting up a 35/35 season that almost nobody is talking about. But the easiest reason to pick them is their bullpen. Goodness gracious, their bullpen is something else. It’s now been over a year since the Guardians lost a game that they led after eight innings. The rest of the league plays the full nine innings, but if Cleveland has the lead in the ninth, handing the ball to the best closer in the game, might as well pack it up and head home because the game’s over.
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The Dodgers are, ostensibly, the World Series favorites in the NL (sorry Philadelphia). Who is the toughest potential matchup waiting for them in the earlier rounds of the playoffs?
Terrence Jordan: Seeing as the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers en route to the World Series just last year, I’ll go with them. L.A.’s pitching staff has been banged up all season, which means that Tyler Glasnow’s recent season-ending elbow injury could prove impossible to overcome. The Dodgers will have to slug their way through the playoffs, but even though they’ve scored the second-most runs in baseball, Arizona has scored the most, and by a comfortable margin. Arizona has to get to the postseason first, as they’re in a dead heat with the Braves and Mets for the final two National League playoff spots, but snakes alive might mean Dodgers dead.
Zachary Rotman: An NLDS featuring the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres is very possible, and if that ends up happening, Dodgers fans should be concerned. Not only did San Diego already win the season series by taking seven of 10 against the Dodgers with three more to play in late September, but they’ve been rolling. The Astros have the best record in the AL since May 1, but the Padres have the best record in the majors in that span at 71-47, and they’re hitting their stride in the second half. Their bullpen is insane, Fernando Tatis Jr. is healthy, and their rotation, led by Dylan Cease, isn’t all that bad either, especially when comparing it to the injury-riddled Dodgers.
Zach Pressnell: I’m going to go with the San Diego Padres as well. As Mr. Rotman has already stated, the Padres took the season series over the Dodgers already. And they did so when Los Angeles was stronger than they are now. By now, we know that bullpens can take over in the postseason. With Suarez and Scott throwing well at the back end of games, the Padres basically only have to win the first seven innings before being able to turn the ball over to this daunting duo. Nobody in the National League wants to play the Padres in October.
Which MLB player will become the breakout star of the 2024 playoffs?
Terrence Jordan: There will be plenty of familiar faces in these playoffs. This will be the best chance, though, for most baseball fans to really get to know Bobby Witt Jr. Playing on the small-market Royals doesn’t afford him as much exposure as someone on the Yankees or Dodgers, but something tells me that when people get to see Kansas City’s five-tool shortstop in a high-pressure environment on national TV, they’ll fall in love. Witt has the Royals poised to reach the postseason for the first time since they won the World Series in 2015, and his thrilling combination of power, speed and bat control could make him the breakout star of these playoffs.
Zachary Rotman: It’s time for the public to find out just how good Jackson Chourio is, despite being just 20 years old. He won’t win the NL Rookie of the Year award over Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill thanks to his slow start, but Chourio has been one of the best players in the majors for a while now. His 164 WRC+ in the second half is good for tenth-best in the majors, and he has tacked on 10 steals and elite defense on top of his emerging bat. There’s a reason the Brewers extended him before he played a single MLB game. He’s already a star, and despite his young age, he’s going to show out in October, perhaps leading the Brewers further than most expect.
Zach Pressnell: First and foremost, I’m so excited to watch Shohei Ohtani compete in the postseason. He’s not a breakout star though, so I’ll pivot somewhere else. For the biggest breakout star, I’ll go with Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been alright since returning from the IL, but I think everybody has forgotten just how good he really is. When the postseason comes around, there’s not a pitcher in baseball who wants to see Tucker at the plate when the game matters most. I think we will see his slugging numbers turn up a notch or two, bringing him closer to the player that he was before his leg injury earlier in the year.
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