The Moonshot: Wild Card picks, Braves fixes and AL Central surprises
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
The Royals, Brewers, Guardians and Tigers were all projected to finish under .500 this season. Which has been the most unexpected surprise?
Terrence Jordan: Like many baseball fans, I’m definitely guilty of not paying enough attention to the AL Central, but even so, I’ve been aware of the Guardians and the Royals pretty much all year. The Guardians have had a stranglehold on the division nearly wire-to-wire, albeit unexpectedly, while the Royals have been a ton of fun behind Bobby Witt Jr. and the inspired pitching of Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans. The Tigers might as well have joined the majors in late August, though, because other than Tarik Skubal’s Cy Young-caliber season, I can count on one hand how many times I’ve thought about them. Until these past few weeks, that is, as they’ve roared their way into a playoff spot as of the time of this writing. That’s why I’m going with Detroit as my most unexpected surprise.
Robert Murray: The Tigers. You could see the vision with the Kansas City Royals, as they have a star player in Bobby Witt Jr and a strong core of veteran players in Salvador Perez and an abundance of offseason additions. But the Tigers, to me, felt a year or two away and that belief was confirmed when they moved Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline. But they have since emerged as one of baseball’s hottest teams and are a real threat to advance to the postseason. I never saw it coming and, quite honestly, I’m not sure anyone in baseball did.
Zachary Rotman: To me, it’s the Cleveland Guardians by a landslide. This team went 76-86 last season, lost Terry Francona to retirement, and did virtually nothing all offseason. The only players that they signed to MLB contracts were Ben Lively and Austin Hedges. Emmanuel Clase was in trade rumors for much of the winter. Despite all of that, they’ve been among the best teams in baseball all year, have the best bullpen by far, and are real October threats. I didn’t expect Cleveland to be awful, but I certainly didn’t expect them to be a postseason team let alone legitimate World Series contenders.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason
Which possible Wild Card series are you most excited for?
Terrence Jordan: I didn’t really get to the Brewers on the last question, but I’d love to here. Many observers thought Milwaukee would suffer a steep drop-off without Corbin Burnes, Craig Counsell and others, but they’ve kept right on trucking. The Brewers clinched their third NL Central title in four years, and no matter who they face in the Wild Card round, it’s going to be a fascinating series. The Padres have been red-hot for months and would almost certainly be favored even though the series would take place in Milwaukee. The Diamondbacks have also had a tremendous second half, and they reached the World Series last year. Then you have the Mets, whose fanbase would be so thrilled just to have made the playoffs but would still be crushed by an early exit. No matter which matchup we get, the chance to see 20-year-old Jackson Chourio, plus underrated stars like Willy Adames, Brice Turang and William Contreras on a playoff stage will be a treat.
Robert Murray: I agree with Terrence. To me, the Brewers are a very real threat to win the National League pennant. But to switch it up I’ll go with the Padres. They have been the best team in baseball since the All-Star break — 41-17 — and are 8-3 against the Dodgers this season. This is the best roster that A.J. Preller has compiled as GM. They can beat anyone and if they keep rolling like this … a World Series championship is very possible.
Zachary Rotman: I don’t know about you, but I’d love to see Tarik Skubal dominate on the postseason stage. I’d love to watch young blossoming Tigers hitters like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, and Parker Meadows continue to show flashes of what they can become. Their bullpen has also been as dominant as any team in September. This Tigers team has been red-hot, and it’d really be something to watch them go toe-to-toe with a team like the Houston Astros or Baltimore Orioles in a three-game set.
What will it take for the Braves to bounce-back in the NL East next season?
Terrence Jordan: The Braves are like Jason Voorhees. Shoot them, hang them from a rope in the barn, hit them with a speedboat propeller, they just refuse to die. As a Mets fan, it’s infuriating. Atlanta isn’t out of it yet this season, but there’s no disputing that this has been a down year for a team that had won the last six NL East titles. A return to the top is simple, though. The Braves don’t need to go wild in free agency, and they don’t need to pull off any blockbuster trades at the winter meetings. They simply need to get healthy. Few teams would still be standing after losing a Cy Young favorite like Spencer Strider and a defending MVP like Ronald Acuna Jr., yet the Braves are still bravely staggering to the finish line while declaring, “I didn’t hear no bell.” Even if they don’t make the postseason, I won’t believe they’re really out of it until we reach the NLCS, and once the playoffs are done, the rest of the teams in the National League will be counting down the days in fear until the Braves are made whole again next year.
Robert Murray: The Braves need to stay healthy. That’s first and foremost. But they also need to address the starting rotation, with Max Fried very likely leaving in free agency this offseason. They have Spencer Schwellenbach, who has looked dominant in his rookie season, and Cy Young favorite Chris Sale in the rotation. They also have Reynaldo Lopez. So there are building blocks. But they need to replace Fried’s production in the offseason. That should be priority No. 1.
Zachary Rotman: It really comes down to health. The fact that they’re still very much alive in the postseason race despite all that they’ve been through is a testament to the roster and depth Alex Anthopoulos has built in Atlanta. Yes, Max Fried is a free agent, but every time someone leaves, Anthopoulos finds a way to replace that player with someone even better on incredibly team-friendly terms. Assuming the Braves add anyone to that rotation and assuming that virtually their entire lineup doesn’t suffer injuries all at once like they did this season, this Braves team will be as good as any in 2025.
feed