The Moonshot: Yankees vs. Dodgers, NL Central predictions, plummeting prospects

Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.

Welcome to The Moonshot.

1. Who is the x-factor in this weekend’s gigantic series between the Dodgers and Yankees?

John Buhler: You know what? I need some good karma, so I’m going to go with my former favorite player, Freddie Freeman, a guy who is a day younger than me. Hopefully, this series is everything everyone could have ever imagined. It will play out exactly like the 1981 World Series did but with different players. It will be great, but I can’t say that I will be watching at all.

Zachary Rotman: I’m going to go with Anthony Volpe, a player who has broken out in a big way in his sophomore season. Volpe has been an unbelievable table setter for the Yankees, hitting at the top of their order in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. He has recorded hits in 25 of his last 26 games, hitting .321 with an .876 OPS in that stretch. If he can get on in front of the best power-hitting duo in the game, there might be tons of fireworks in the Bronx.

Terrence Jordan: In a star-studded affair, give me Juan Soto. The new king of New York has been everything the Yankees could have hoped for and more in propelling them to a share of the best record in baseball. He’s tied with Bobby Witt, Jr. for the lead in the AL batting race, second behind Jose Ramirez for the league lead in RBIs, and his 17 homers are only four behind Aaron Judge, even after his teammate’s torrid May. Every day that goes by makes the Yankees’ acquisition of Soto look better and better, and showing out against the Dodgers in a possible World Series preview would cement Soto as the AL MVP favorite.

Robert Murray: Is it boring to say Shohei Ohtani? It is? Well, give me Ohtani anyway. Series like this, and competing in the postseason, are why the Dodgers signed Ohtani. He gives them an advantage against any team, even one armed with Aaron Judge. Ohtani has struggled in the last 14 days — he’s hitting a mere .195/.250/.390 with two home runs and six RBI - but all it takes is one swing of the bat to change everything for him. And a big series against the American League’s elite figures to bring out the best in him. 

2. Top to bottom, the NL Central has been the most competitive division in baseball this season. What order do the Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates and Reds finish in?

John Buhler: I am low-key invested in this, as I did pick the Cubs to win the division. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen because Jed Hoyer might be a coward. We don’t reward cowards on this website. Give me the exact order you have listed above. The Brew Crew will win the division. The fact the Cardinals finish above the Cubs sustains me. Maybe next year the Pirates and Reds will finally put it all together? This division is competitive, I’ll say.

Zachary Rotman: The Brewers have been the best team in this division by far this season, and the fact that they take a 6.0-game lead into Wednesday’s action tells me that it’s their division to lose. The Cardinals have been playing better of late, so as long as they don’t sell at the trade deadline, they look like the second-best team. The Cubs need their offense to wake up and to seriously add to their bullpen to be anywhere higher than third. The Pirates should have the pitching to carry them to a fourth-place finish over the Reds, who have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season.

Terrence Jordan: The Brewers traded away Corbin Burnes this offseason, but it hasn’t seemed to matter. They should win the NL Central going away, but after that it gets interesting. The Cubs have been a mess recently as they’ve fallen below .500. Shota Imanaga has finally looked human in his last two starts, and the lineup just hasn’t done enough, but I still think they’re the second-best team in this division and will contend for a Wild Card spot. Give me the Pirates for third as they ride the electric arms of Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. The Cardinals have played well lately, but they’ll finish in fourth, with the Reds bringing up the rear.

Robert Murray: Before the season, I went with the Brewers, and I’m sticking with it. They’ll need to add a starting pitcher or two ahead of the trade deadline, and I expect them to do so. The Cubs feel like a prime candidate to finish second. I think the Pirates surge and finish in third place, as Paul Skenes and Jared Jones look like one of baseball’s best young duos already. I don’t buy the Cardinals’ recent uptick, so I have them finishing in fourth, while the disappointing Reds finish in last place. 

3. Who has more hits in the 2025 MLB season — Jackson Holliday or Spencer Torkelson?

John Buhler: I’m going to go with Jackson Holliday. His praise seems to be more deserved. Spencer Torkelson is doing things for the Tigers I haven’t seen since Mike Maroth. I don’t care that they play different positions, it still doesn’t change the fact that he may not be good. From a Tigers’ rooting perspective, I will always be Team Riley Greene, whose mom used to work for the same engineering firm as my dad. The fact her son was a top-10 pick out of high school will always blow my mind. Torkelson only does in how bad he is, so I am going with Holliday here.

Zachary Rotman: Jackson Holliday looked overmatched in his first taste of MLB pitching, but he stepped up to the plate 36 times. Spencer Torkelson, outside of an unbelievable second half of last season, has looked overmatched in a vast majority of his 1,318 plate appearances. Holliday has the better hit tool, as evidenced by his .311 career average in the minors. Of course, minor league pitching is nowhere near as good as MLB pitching, but Torkelson hit .258 in his minor league career. If we’re strictly talking about total hits, it’s really hard to take Torkelson over Holliday.

Terrence Jordan: Jackson Holliday is the number one prospect in baseball for a reason, and a disappointing major-league debut shouldn’t change anybody’s mind about his talent. His meteoric rise through the minors happened for a reason, but the jump from AAA to the majors is real, and it takes time for even the best prospects to adjust. Torkelson is going in the wrong direction, having recently been optioned to AAA by the Tigers. It’s the right move for a guy who needs to find his swing, but even when he broke out last year, he was still just a .233 hitter. Holliday is four years younger and projects as a better contact hitter. As long as he gets a comparable number of at-bats next year, he’s the pick.

Robert Murray: I’m going with Jackson Holliday. Yes, he looked overwhelmed after being called up, but he was the No. 1 prospect in baseball for a reason. He’ll bounce back and show why he was such a highly regarded prospect. Torkelson will as well — his recent demotion is disappointing — but as one major-league coach told me this week: “This league is eating up young players and hitters overall. Pitching is absurd. Defense too is ridiculous. It’s excruciatingly difficult.”