NBA Awards Rankings: New No. 1 in MVP race

As we settle in for the holidays, the NBA season pushes on. The MVP race in particular has shaped up to be a real doozy. We have changed the No. 1 spot multiple times over the last month. It's a contested race, but right now... there's a clear and undeniable favorite.

It shouldn't take much to figure out who that favorite is. Joel Embiid leads the latest MVP straw poll from ESPN. Those early-season results almost never hold — Jayson Tatum was No. 1 this time last season — but with Embiid's track record of finishing either first or second in MVP voting, his early lead is notable. He's playing the best basketball of his career and folks are starting to catch on.

Narrative is the unknown and implacable factor that ultimately determines the MVP vote every year. Most of the time, the right candidate — or one of the right candidates — wins. Last season, Embiid finally outstripped Nikola Jokic after back-to-back second place finishes. Jokic was the best player on the West's No. 1 seed and he beat in Embiid is most advanced categories, but Denver coasted to the finish line in the final month of the season. Embiid took advantage with some timely offensive explosions and won his first Michael Jordan Trophy.

Now, with the public consensus back on Jokic's side after a deep Denver run, it will be interesting to see how the discourse treats Embiid. Maybe he didn't deserve it last season, but that shouldn't impact him in 2024. At least in theory.

Here's a look at the MVP rankings as we approach a juicy slate of Christmas Day games, a landmark in the 82-game regular season.

NBA MVP power rankings: Holidays edition

Honorable mentions: LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Trae Young

The Clippers won nine straight prior to Saturday's loss to OKC, which occurred with Kawhi Leonard out of the lineup. Leonard has been back to his old ways and the Clippers look suspiciously like real contenders. Health is always a lingering question with Leonard (and the Clippers as a whole), but the two-time Finals MVP averaged 29.3 points on .613/.500/.957 splits during Los Angeles' win streak.

De'Aaron Fox continues to go scorched earth for the No. 4 seed Kings. His constant rim pressure, combined with improved 3-point shooting (40.0 percent!) and a sharp playmaking eye is the driving force behind Sacramento's elite offense. Domantas Sabonis will steal votes, and deservedly so, but we probably don't appreciate how special Fox is enough. He scored 41 in the Kings' win over second-place OKC on Dec. 14, a real case-making performance.

It's hard to hold limited team success against Stephen Curry. That said, the Warriors have managed to win three straight to boost the 35-year-old's candidacy. He remains preternaturally efficient with a skill set that elevates everyone in his orbit. If it weren't for Curry, I hesitate to imagine how bad Golden State's outlook might be right now. His 33 points on 6-for-11 from deep in the Warriors' recent win over Boston was classic, cold-blooded Curry.

Kevin Durant continues to operate at peak levels for Phoenix. The Suns are on a slide — losers of four of their last five — but KD's volume and efficiency as a scorer difficult to ignore in this particular race. He's still the Suns' best player and the reason we can feel good about Phoenix competing for a championship once the playoffs roll around.

Maybe we're collectively underrating Luka Doncic. His impressive counting stats are just expected at this point. We don't blink twice at 32.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.1 assists on .485/.376/.776 shooting. The Mavs continue to look the part of a reborn contender, with Doncic shouldering a major workload as the sun around which Dallas orbits. It's hard not to correlate Doncic's involvement on offense directly to value. Doncic has the misfortune of a stacked field. He's way out-producing your standard sixth-place MVP candidate.