NBA Draft Lottery odds if the season ended today: Who picks No. 1?

With the 2023/24 season about a month old, let's take a look at the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery picture.

San Antonio Spurs v Golden State Warriors
San Antonio Spurs v Golden State Warriors / Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages

The NBA Draft Lottery odds give the three worst teams by record equal odds at the No. 1 overall pick, and every non-playoff team has a shot at the first overall pick with descending odds based on record.

With picks being traded regularly with varying levels of protections on pick conveyance, the lottery odds are even more dynamic and interesting. Now about 20 percent of the way through the season, it's a good time to take a look at where things stand.

The four teams at the bottom of the lottery and the current eighth and seventh seeds in the Eastern and Western Conference will participate in the NBA play-in tournament to qualify for the playoffs. The four teams, regardless of regular season record, to make the playoffs through the play-in will move out of the lottery, and the four losers will end up in it.

NBA draft order if season ended today

If the NBA Draft Lottery fell completely to form, here would be the lottery order:

  1. Detroit Pistons*
  2. Washington Wizards*
  3. San Antonio Spurs*
  4. Memphis Grizzlies
  5. Portland Trail Blazers
  6. Chicago Bulls
  7. Utah Jazz
  8. Charlotte Hornets
  9. Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn Nets)
  10. OKC Thunder (via LA Clippers)
  11. Portland Trail Blazers (via Golden State Warriors)
  12. Cleveland Cavaliers
  13. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto Raptors)
  14. New Orleans Pelicans

*Equal odds of winning top overall pick

Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, San Antonio Spurs - 14.0%

The Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons are currently the joint-holders of the worst record in the league with teams having won only two of their first 16 games.

Jointly, they currently have the best chance of receiving the top pick in the upcoming draft with both teams projected to be guaranteed a top-six pick along with the joint-best top-four and top-pick odds.

The Spurs have the joint-best odds of landing consecutive top picks at this point in the season after a 3-13 start. They also have a 52.1 percent chance of landing a top-four pick.

Memphis Grizzlies - 12.5%

A consistent playoff team over the last few seasons, the Grizzlies surprisingly own the fourth-best odds for the first overall pick after an unexpected 3-12 start. As of today, the Grizzlies have a 12.5 percent chance of landing with the top pick and a 48.1 percent chance of ending up with a top-four pick.

Portland Trail Blazers - 10.5%

With a 4-11 record, The Blazers land just outside the top four in terms of top-pick odds with 10.5 percent. The Blazers have a 42.1 percent chance of getting a top-four pick.

Chicago Bulls - 9%

The Bulls have a 9 percent chance of landing the top pick as they currently hold the sixth-worst record. 

Utah Jazz - 7.5%

The Jazz have a 7.5 percent chance of landing the top pick as they currently hold the seventh-worst record. 

Charlotte Hornets - 6.0%

The Charlotte Hornets can potentially add another top pick to their team with a 6 percent chance at the No. 1 pick and a 26.4 percent chance at a top-four pick. 

Houston Rockets and OKC Thunder - 3.75% (via Nets and Clippers)

Despite good starts to their respective seasons, the Houston Rockets and OKC Thunder find themselves with lottery chances thanks to the James Harden and Paul George trades. Both teams received unprotected picks from the Nets and Clippers, who find themselves below .500.

Golden State Warriors - 2.0%

At 8-9, the Warriors find themselves with the 11th-best odds for the No. 1 overall pick with a two percent chance.

Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers - 1.25%

The Raptors are currently 8-8 and have the 13th-best odds at the No. 1 pick at 1.2 percent. However, they would lose this pick to San Antonio if it lands outside the top-6 thanks to the Jakob Poeltl trade.

The Cavaliers also have the same record and hence the same odds for the first pick prior to the random drawing tiebreaker.

New Orleans Pelicans - 0.5%

The Pelicans currently occupy the 9-seed in the Western Conference with a 9-8 record, the best among the bottom seven teams from each conference, and hence find themselves at the bottom of this list with a 0.5 percent chance of the No. 1 overall pick.