NBA Rookie of the Year ladder: Warriors' Brandin Podziemski surges into top 5

We have seen redshirt rookies thrive in the past — Blake Griffin, Joel Embiid, and Ben Simmons are the poster children. Still, it's hardly a guarantee, and few thrive to the extent Chet Holmgren has. The 21-year-old was No. 1 on a lot of boards in 2022, but he has thoroughly outperformed the prospect of a generation. There's time for Wembanyama to mount a serious case, but as the calendar flips from 2023 to 2024, Holmgren profiles as the clear and indisputable Rookie of the Year favorite.

Holmgren has been an excellent No. 2 star on the West's No. 2 seed right out of the gate. OKC could hit a speed bump or two as the season progresses, but there's little to indicate that the Thunder will collapse. OKC currently owns the NBA's No. 3 defense and No. 6 offense. Holmgren contributes both ways. He's another viable DPOY candidate, averaging 2.7 blocks and expertly navigating multiple different coverages as the Thunder's primary anchor. We should recognize that Holmgren has far more help on that end than Wemby — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, and Jalen Williams all have All-Defense cases — but situation always impacts rookie success. Holmgren has taken full advantage of his superior circumstances.

The same can be said for the offensive end. Holmgren plugs comfortably into OKC's dynamic offense full of ball-handlers and plus decision-makers. SGA is a walking paint touch and maybe the best guard in the NBA. Williams has blossomed into a legitimate second-fiddle scorer who can pressure the rim, create on the move, or splash 3s. Holmgren's usage pales in comparison to Wemby, but he's an efficient rim finisher and 3-point shooter who possesses the fluidity to beat closeouts, drive the lane, and connect dots as a passer.

For the season, Holmgren is averaging 17.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (1.7 turnovers) on .539/.392/.844 splits in 29.8 minutes. Elite lob threat and 3-point marksman, shot-blocker and switch-all maestro — Holmgren checks a ton of boxes and he's gradually expanding his role for one of the NBA's true heavy-hitters. As the field currently sits, it's hard to point to anybody else at No. 1, no matter how desperately the Spurs lean on their own 7-footer.