Here are the 16 teams that can win a national championship based on one sticky metric

While I do not claim to be a numbers guy by any stretch of the imagination, all I know is that the more dudes you have, the better chance you have of winning more games in college football. Even in the day and age of NIL, inducement and the transfer portal, recruiting players out of high school and junior college still is of utmost importance. It is the necessary bedrock upon which a program is built.

Bud Elliott of 247Sports outlined the handful of teams who could realistically win the expanded College Football Playoff this fall. His data says that a team's blue-chip ratio must exceed 50 percent. For those who don't know what a blue-chip ratio is, let me explain. It is the percentage of how many four and five-star recruits you have on your team, whether that is from high school or out of JUCO.

Here are the 16 college football teams that satisfy the necessary blue-chip ratio to win a national title.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes: 90 percent
2. Alabama Crimson Tide: 88 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs: 80 percent
4. Texas A&M Aggies: 79 percent
5. Oregon Ducks: 76 percent
6. Oklahoma Sooners: 73 percent
7. Texas Longhorns: 72 percent
8. LSU Tigers: 70 percent
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 67 percent
10. Clemson Tigers: 64 percent
11. Florida Gators: 63 percent
12. Miami Hurricanes: 61 percent
13. Penn State Nittany Lions: 61 percent
14. USC Trojans: 59 percent
15. Michigan Wolverines: 56 percent
16. Auburn Tigers: 53 percent

Among the 16 teams Elliott has listed, most don't really come as much of a surprise. Ohio State (No. 1), Georgia (No. 3), Oregon (No. 5) and Texas (No. 7) are the four likeliest to win it all, all of whom have recruited well. Programs like Alabama (No. 2), Oklahoma (No. 6), LSU (No. 8), Notre Dame (No. 9), Clemson (No. 10), Miami (No. 12), Penn State (No. 13), USC (No. 14) and Michigan (No. 15) will contend.

As for Texas A&M (No. 4), Florida (No. 11) and Auburn (No. 16), well, at least they still recruit very well...

Of course, there are a few big absences from this list, including Florida State, Missouri and Ole Miss.

Let's unpack Elliott's findings a bit more to see if we can make sense of the data for the masses.

What the blue-chip ratio means for College Football Playoff contenders

For teams like Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas, everything is coming up aces for them. They have the right head coaches in place, enough talent and enough big-game experience to take it to the top in major college football. If your preseason pick to win the College Football Playoff this year is one of those four teams, I am right there with you. These should be the four best teams in the sport.

As for that next cluster of teams featuring the likes of Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Notre Dame, there is a pretty good chance that they will make the playoff. The coaching is fine, the talent is sufficient, but there are other reasons why they are not as likely to win it all as the first four I listed. As for Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M, they have the talent, but maybe not the established culture for it.

Now when we try to understand why teams like Florida State, Missouri and Ole Miss aren't listed as teams who can realistically win it all, you have to remember that Mike Norvell and Lane Kiffin have largely been transfer portal kings at their respective schools. That help bridges the gap. Give it a year, and Florida State should be over 50 percent. Ole Miss may need more time than that. Poor Missouri...

The really interesting part for me is I actually like the Rebels, Seminoles and Tigers' chances of winning it all more than quite a few teams with better blue-chip ratios than them. I'd say those three have better chances than the likes of Clemson, Miami, Oklahoma and USC, not to mention Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M. Regardless, this data is still fascinating, as it helps us forecast a bit better.

To me, I may have to reconsider who I have as my fifth likeliest national title winner behind Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Oregon, in that order. I had Ole Miss fifth, but recent data, here and in other places, suggest I am more bullish on Kiffin's Rebels way more than I should be. Based strictly on how I feel about the blue-chip ratio, I may have to go with Alabama or LSU instead of Ole Miss right now...

We are still two months out from the start of the season, so we all have time to adjust accordingly.