5 coaches who will win first national title this decade, 4 who might, 3 wait and see

With Nick Saban retiring and Jim Harbaugh returning to the NFL, only three active college football head coaches have won a national championship at the FBS level. North Carolina head coach Mack Brown did it way back in the day at Texas in 2006. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has won two in 2016 and 2018. Georgia head coach Kirby Smart went back-to-back in 2021 and 2022. That is all!

Although I would say Georgia might be the favorite to make it three national titles in four years, we are entering untrodden territory in college football in a post-Nick Saban world. While I remain skeptical about Clemson's chances ever winning another because of Swinney's antiquated ways when it comes to team building, I mean, they could. As for Brown, the man is old as sin and needs to retire...

So what I am going to do today is take a look at a dozen Power Four head coaches who I think has next. Right now, I have five head coaches who I would be shocked if they don't win a national title in the next decade or so, four who I think have a real shot at it, and three that I think could, but I need to see a little bit more first before I go all-in on them. In terms of who's got next, I do have a few in mind.

Let's start with the five head coaches I think could win a national title by 2033 at the absolute latest.

5 college football head coaches who will win first national title this decade

I have various reasons why I am so incredibly bullish on these five coaches to get it done here soon.

5. Florida State Seminoles HC Mike Norvell

What a difference a few years makes. Mike Norvell is the man down in Tallahassee. Although it has been over a decade since the Florida State Seminoles last won a national championship, I would be shocked if they don't go on a deep run in the expanded College Football Playoff at some point. Norvell is adapt at player development, using the transfer portal to his advantage and recruitment.

The reason he isn't any higher than fifth of the five I would be shocked don't win one has nothing to do with the man himself, but everything to do with the conference Florida State plays in. The ACC is doing more harm than good for his program. Even if they were undefeated heading into the playoff, I am skeptical about how ready they will be when they have to take on Big Ten and SEC behemoths.

Should Florida State leave the ACC, I still like Norvell's chances to win at least one national title.

4. LSU Tigers HC Brian Kelly

This is the Brian Kelly pop year. During his third season at a program, his teams usually do extraordinary things. He came to LSU for this reason: to win national championships. Over the last two years, he has become increasingly likable and has held his own in the gauntlet that is the SEC. I have only two real concerns with him ever getting to the mountain top: His age and his conference.

Right now, I have LSU as a fringe-playoff team in the deep SEC. They are No. 6 in my hypothetical conference power rankings for this year. It may not happen in 2024, but we have seen LSU shock everyone and go on an unexpected run before. The fact he is at the end of this career doesn't give him a long runway. He must lean on his coordinators like Blake Baker to give him his best opportunity.

If Kelly got to Baton Rouge at 55 as opposed to 60, I would feel different about this. He is already 62...

3. Oregon Ducks HC Dan Lanning

For Georgia Bulldog reasons, I want to wish this into existence. Dan Lanning has quickly become the strongest branch stemming off the Kirby Smart coaching tree. What he has done at Oregon over the last two years leads me to believe that he will lead the Ducks to the promised land one day. Of course, he has to figure out how to beat Washington first, but there is one other thing that is in his way as well.

Lanning must be a relentless recruiter on a nationwide scope because Oregon does not have enough top-flight players in-state to sustain a national title-contending program like this. Entering this season, Oregon is one of four teams I can honestly say is good enough to win a national championship. While I would put them fourth out of those four, everybody else is looking up at them.

Lanning is young enough, enthusiastic enough and passionate enough to be Oregon's Nick Saban.

2. Texas Longhorns HC Steve Sarkisian

We have crossed the Rubicon and into "it's gotta happen or else" territory with these final two coaches. Steve Sarkisian pretty much has Texas back, but anything short of a national championship in the next five years should not be tolerated. He had the Longhorns in the College Football Playoff last year. Along with Oregon, they are among a handful of teams who can realistically win it all in 2024.

There are no excuses, only pressure. If Sarkisian wants to be as celebrated as Darrell K Royal is in Austin, he needs to win a national championship. It may not happen right away, but I would be shocked if it didn't happen before my 40th birthday. I am 34, going on 35. To me, there are few programs with as many resources at their disposal quite like Texas. They have the pieces to do this.

Moving into the SEC could present a few challenges, but the SEC now has to play Texas more often.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes HC Ryan Day

Nobody occupies a stranger seat in college football this year than Ryan Day. The amount of pressure he is facing is otherworldly. Ohio State should win the Big Ten and is right up there with Georgia to win it all this season. I like the Buckeyes' chances to do so more than I do Oregon or Texas. Of course, Day has not even beaten Michigan since the COVID-19 pandemic. You have to wonder how much slack he will be afforded.

With incoming athletic director Ross Bjork opening the NIL spigots, Ohio State is in arguably the most advantageous situation to be and remain a college football power in the expanded playoff era. My only real concern with Day is what if he fails to reach these lofty expectations? With great power comes great responsibility. If he cannot get it done, the Ohio State needs to find someone who will.

Anything short of a national semifinals appearance this season should not be tolerated by Ohio State.

4 college football head coaches who might win first national title this decade

Now let's turn our attention to four more college head coaches who might be able to do it once.

4. Missouri Tigers HC Eliah Drinkwitz

Eliah Drinkwitz has showed me a lot during his brief, but promising tenure at Missouri. College Football Playoff expansion is absolutely huge for Mizzou, especially because the Tigers no longer have to face Georgia annually in the SEC East. Of course, the Tigers will be playing teams like Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss with far greater regularity now. Does he have enough horses, though?

My biggest reason for thinking Drinkwitz might be able to do it is how well he has recruited since taking over in CoMo. He is taking advantage of Iowa no longer having a stranglehold on St. Louis, as well as pursuing top-flight prospects nationally. While I don't think Missouri has enough firepower to win it all this season, I am very intrigued by the build and the climb the Tigers are doing under Drink.

For now, I give Drinkwitz an outside shot at maybe being able to lead the Tigers to the promised land.

3. Penn State Nittany Lions HC James Franklin

I am not one with The Driver James Franklin, but his innate ability to go 10-2 pretty much every season should get his Penn State Nittany Lions into the expanded playoff more often than not. You could argue that Penn State was the best program in the Power Five to never make the College Football Playoff at any point in its previous four-team format. Expansion helps Penn State out a ton.

However, this is more about where Penn State lands in the college football hierarchy more than Franklin. If he doesn't get it done, one of his successors probably will. With him feeling some heat both internally and from a legal sense, he may not get that chance. Regardless, Penn State benefited more from the Big Ten doing away with divisions than anyone. Maybe he could take this thing to 11?

The fact I have Penn State as a playoff lock this year tells you everything I think about Franklin's team.

2. Ole Miss Rebels HC Lane Kiffin

If there is any team not named Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas that I think can win a national title this season, it has to be Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Rebels. Over the last few years, Kiffin has transformed Ole Miss football into being the better version Penn State down in the SEC. The Rebels beat the Nittany Lions last year in the Peach Bowl. To me, this is all about Kiffin leveling up as a coach.

If he takes this seriously, we are looking at the best head coach Ole Miss has had since Johnny Vaught. Honestly, he might already be that. As it is with Penn State in the Big Ten, no team benefited more from the SEC going division-less than Ole Miss. The Rebels do not have to play Alabama and LSU annually anymore. Ole Miss has a loaded roster, but this is all about Kiffin being more serious.

We have seen far goofier head coaches win a national title before, so I am not ruling Kiffin out here.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide HC Kalen DeBoer

This is all about fit. Kalen DeBoer is a fantastic head coach, having won everywhere he has been before. Alabama is one of the very best programs in the country. However, there may be a few unrealistic expectations put on DeBoer's plate as Nick Saban's immediate successor. He may have won prolifically at Washington previously, but this is Alabama, and this is the SEC. Is he up for this?

While I wanted to say that he is a lock to bring Alabama a national title within the next decade, it wasn't that long ago that a complete outsider came into the SEC and got eaten alive. Bryan Harsin was the latest example of how if it doesn't mean enough for you in the land of it just means more, you will be crucified. Fortunately, I like DeBoer way more than Harsin, Joe Moorhead and Bret Bielema.

It will take time, but by year three on the job, we will have a better feel for if DeBoer can do this.

3 college football head coaches to wait and see about winning a national title

And finally, here are three head coaches were I think could do it, but I need a bit more information.

3. Michigan Wolverines HC Sherrone Moore

I don't know if we are going to get a Larry Coker championship out of Sherrone Moore, but he is taking over at Michigan with so much working knowledge and so much momentum. Unfortunately, until we see how the team responds to his coaching style for a full season, I am not going to put him on a list of head coaches that I definitely think are winning a national title. Plus, there are scandals...

Some hamburgers already put the Michigan Wolverines on probation. Knowing that the other shoe is going to drop once the NCAA completes its investigation into the sign-stealing scandal, we have to wonder if Moore is built to weather the storm. I do know that his players love him and he was fantastic as the interim head coach for four games last year. Michigan could have staying power in the Big Ten.

Although Michigan is not repeating as national champions, I think Moore could get one of his own.

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish HC Marcus Freeman

For as bullish as I am on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish this season, I do recognize that there are some limitations that will probably always get in the way of them winning a national title in the 21st century. Not playing in a conference has its advantages and disadvantages, but I think it is the university structure in place may present challenges for Marcus Freeman. Plus, we need to see if he is legit, too.

If Notre Dame was in the ACC, I might feel more confident about Freeman's chances of winning a national championship leading the Fighting Irish. Then again, if Ryan Day were to be fired for coming up way short of lofty expectations this year, I wouldn't be shocked if Freeman left South Bend for his alma mater in Columbus. That is another reason why I think Freeman could win it all at some point in this.

Notre Dame is arguably a top-seven team entering this year, but even that may not be good enough.

1. USC Trojans HC Lincoln Riley

I am not a Lincoln Riley fan at all. However, I really, really, really wanted to put him higher than a guy I have to wait and see about. He took the Oklahoma Sooners to three College Football Playoffs after taking over for Bob Stoops. While he didn't win a single national semifinal in Norman, he most certainly got there. Truth be told, I think USC joining the Big Ten actually helps him out a ton in this.

Riley can no longer hide behind terrible defenses. He may run an Air Raid offense, but he has never been afraid to run the ball powerfully up the middle. Right now, I would say USC is in a group of about three or four teams in the Big Ten that aren't locks to make the playoff, but could have a pathway in this year. USC is not winning a national title this season, but they might be good enough in 2027...

If Riley can show some self-awareness and grow as a coach, he could win a national title one day.