NFL DFS picks: Sunday's Week 5 bargain bin for the main slate

Welcome to Week 5 of the NFL season! It's going by too fast as usual. But hopefully, we are now far along enough to have a strong data set helping us judge these matchups moving forward. Last week was hit and miss for the column. Justin Fields was our big hit last week, but Carson Steele stung pretty badly after getting benched for fumbling. Chuba Hubbard continued his strong play, but Kyler Murray could not get the pass game working enough for his receivers to do much for our DFS lineups.

Hopefully here in Week 5, we can up that batting average. The pool of players narrows this week with four teams going on bye. That means we might need to zig a little more than usual why others are over there zagging all over the place. Let's see what we can do.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith, Seahawks vs. Giants ($5.9k)

Smith isn't getting the passing touchdowns we would hope, but Ryan Grubb's offense has him throwing the ball more than anyone else, as he leads in attempts per game and passing yards. He's currently a fantasy QB8 despite having thrown just four touchdowns on the season. The Giants have allowed two-touchdown games to Sam Darnold, Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott this season, and rank 20th in pass defense EPA.

Joe Flacco, Colts at Jaguars ($5.5k)

At this point, we are still waiting on who will start for the Colts this week, as Anthony Richardson is dealing with an oblique injury. The good news for Flacco is that he was taking first-team reps on Friday, which points toward him starting. If he does, this is a great matchup for Flacco at a low DFS price.

Last week Flacco came in for the injured Richardson and threw for two touchdowns against a good Steelers defense. This week he would get the whole week of practice as the likely starter and a much better matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville currently ranks as the third-worst pass defense in EPA and the worst at giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Running backs

Jerome Ford, Browns at Commanders ($5.8k)

Ford isn't going to create a lot of offense on his own, but he's seen good usage and is in a great matchup this week. Sure, the Commanders have an awful pass defense, but they also have an awful run defense! They rank 25th in run defense EPA and have allowed strong games to Devin Singletary, Zack Moss and James Conner so far this season. Ford had 10 rushing attempts and seven receptions last week while playing over 70 percent of the snaps.

Javonte Williams, Broncos vs. Raiders (5.2k)

Williams was one of the few bright spots last week against the Jets. Not that he put up big numbers, but that he was able to rush for more yards than Bo Nix was able to pass for. The Raiders have now given up good fantasy games to J.K. Dobbins, Derrick Henry, and Chuba Hubbard. They rank 26th in run defense EPA and 25th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Williams hasn't done too much this season to hang your hat on, but this matchup is going to be one of his best and the Raiders shouldn't be able to do much offensively against the Broncos strong defense, especially without Davante Adams.

Wide receivers

Wan'Dale Robinson, Giants at Seahawks ($5.6k)

Robinson has been a target magnet this season and with Malik Nabers out with a concussion, we should feel pretty good about him seeing enough work to put up a nice PPR floor. The matchup isn't great, but we're not looking for huge numbers from Robinson. He's strictly a PPR cheat code with targets narrowed.

Josh Downs, Colts at Jaguars ($5.1k)

I like Downs this week no matter who plays at quarterback between Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson, but I would still much prefer Flacco get the start, which I think he will. Downs is back and healthy and looking good after a strong summer. Last week against the Steelers, he caught 8-of-9 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. He was the first-read on 40.9 percent of the Colts targets as well, ranking him 10th overall for the week. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, fifth-most fantasy points, and third-most passing EPA to wide receivers.

Dontayvion Wicks, Packers at Rams ($5k)

Wicks is likely to be heavily rostered in DFS this week due to his two touchdowns last week, his low salary, Christian Watson's ankle injury, and Romeo Doubs doubtful designation. And if he were going up against a tough pass defense, I would be pretty wary, but he in fact is not going up against a good pass defense. The Rams have given up huge fantasy days to Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jauan Jennings this season, which has led them to be ranked 31st in pass defense EPA.

Tight ends

Tucker Kraft, Packers at Rams ($3.5k)

Kraft is very cheap and is coming off his first touchdown of the year along with his highest snap percentage along with targets. Christian Watson is out and Romeo Doubs is questionable. Plus, the Rams defense has been dreadful. These factors will likely push Kraft up in roster percentages, but there are a few good tight ends to pay up for this week. We'll see, but he is likely going to be my cash tight end play this week.

Erick All Jr., Bengals vs. Ravens ($2.7k)

All Jr. is fun to type, and he's seen fairly consistent work recently for a backup tight end. And since he blocks, he does see more snaps than Mike Gesicki and actually had his highest snap percentage last week at 60 percent, which is the highest number for any Benglas tight end all season. He has seen four targets in each of his last three games and caught four in each of his last two games. All that is to say he's still a punt play, but one that could be trending up. He also gets a good matchup with the Ravens, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.