Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season is getting into do-or-die territory for teams around the league.
For those lucky few, the knife's edge is the difference between a No. 1 seed and merely a division title. For the rest, these are the games that will decide whether or not they're sitting at home in mid-January or competing for the ultimate prize.
Let's look at the standings and what clinching and elimination scenarios are in play this weekend.
- NFC Standings
- How can the 49ers clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC?
- How can the Eagles clinch the NFC East?
- How can the Buccaneers clinch the NFC South?
- How can the Rams clinch a playoff berth?
- How can the Seahawks clinch a playoff berth?
- NFC elimination scenarios for Vikings, Packers, Bears, Saints, Falcons
- AFC Standings
- How can the Ravens clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC?
- How can the Dolphins clinch the AFC East?
- How can the Chiefs clinch the AFC West?
- How can the Jaguars clinch the AFC South?
- How can the Browns clinch a playoff berth?
- How can the Bills clinch a playoff berth?
- AFC elimination scenarios for Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Raiders, Broncos
NFC Standings
- 49ers (11-4) — Clinched playoffs and division
- Eagles (11-4) — Clinched playoffs
- Lions (11-4) — Clinched playoffs
- Buccaneers (8-7)
- Cowboys (10-5) — Clinched playoffs
- Rams (8-7)
- Seahawks (8-7)
- Vikings (7-8)
- Falcons (7-8)
- Packers (7-8)
- Saints (7-8)
- Bears (6-9)
- Giants (5-10) — Eliminated
- Commanders (4-11) — Eliminated
- Cardinals (3-12) — Eliminated
- Panthers (2-13) — Eliminated
How can the 49ers clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC?
To lock in the No. 1 seed, the 49ers need to beat the Commanders while the Eagles and Lions lose to the Cardinals and Cowboys respectively.
SF is a double-digit favorite in their matchup and Detroit is an underdog to Dallas but Arizona would need to pull off a sizable upset.
How can the Eagles clinch the NFC East?
The Eagles can clinch a division title with a win and a Cowboys loss or tie. A tie for Philly can also get it done so long as Dallas loses.
How can the Buccaneers clinch the NFC South?
A win over the Saints will be enough for the Buccaneers to take the division. If they tie they also need the Falcons to lose to the Bears.
How can the Rams clinch a playoff berth?
The Rams need to beat the Giants and get some help with a Seahawks loss to the Steelers or a Vikings tie vs. the Packers to secure a playoff berth.
How can the Seahawks clinch a playoff berth?
The Seahawks will head for the postseason if they beat the Steelers and the Vikings tie the Packers.
NFC elimination scenarios for Vikings, Packers, Bears, Saints, Falcons
Vikings elimination scenarios
- Loss + SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie
- Loss + SEA win/tie + TB tie + ATL win
- Loss + LAR win/tie + TB tie + ATL win
- Tie + SEA win + LAR win
Packers elimination scenarios
- Loss + SEA win/tie
- Loss + LAR win/tie
- Loss + LB tie + ATL win
- Loss + NO win + ATL win + ARI win + large combination of results
- Tie + SEA win + LAR win
Bears elimination scenarios
- Loss/tie
- SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie
- SEA win/tie + GB win
- SEA win/tie + MIN win
- LAR win/tie + GB win
- LAR win/tie + MIN win
Saints elimination scenarios
- Loss
- Tie + SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie
Falcons elimination scenarios
- Loss + TB win/tie
- Tie + TB win + LAR tie + SEA win/tie
- Tie + TB win + LAR win + SEA tie
- TB win + LAR win + SEA win
Next let's look at the AFC...
AFC Standings
- Ravens (12-3) — Clinched playoffs
- Dolphins (11-4) — Clinched playoffs
- Chiefs (9-6)
- Jaguars (8-7)
- Browns (11-5) — Clinched playoffs
- Bills (9-6)
- Colts (8-7)
- Texans (8-7)
- Steelers (8-7)
- Bengals (8-7)
- Raiders (7-8)
- Broncos (7-8)
- Jets (6-10) — Eliminated
- Titans (5-10) — Eliminated
- Chargers (5-10) — Eliminated
- Patriots (4-11) — Eliminated
How can the Ravens clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC?
The Ravens can clinch the first-round bye and home-field advantage that comes with the No. 1 seed with a win over the Dolphins.
The Browns win on Thursday Night Football over the Jets means the Ravens cannot clinch the AFC North without a victory or a tie.
How can the Dolphins clinch the AFC East?
The Dolphins need a win or tie over the Ravens to clinch the division. Alternatively, a loss or tie for the Bills against the Patriots will do the trick.
How can the Chiefs clinch the AFC West?
A win over the Bengals will lock the Chiefs in for another AFC West title. So will a tie or the Broncos and Raiders failing to win their games against the Chargers and Colts respectively.
How can the Jaguars clinch the AFC South?
The Jaguars need to beat the Panthers then hope for the Colts to lose to the Raiders and Texans to lose to the Titans to clinch the AFC South.
How can the Browns clinch a playoff berth?
The Browns clinched the playoffs with their Thursday Night Football win over the Jets, so they won't have to depend on the likes of the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, Texans or Colts to get the job done.
How can the Bills clinch a playoff berth?
There are more than a dozen scenarios to get the Bills in but none of them involve a loss to the Patriots.
If Buffalo wins, they also need:
- PITT loss/tie + CIN loss/tie
- PITT loss/tie + JAX loss/tie
- PITT loss/tie + IND loss/tie + HOU loss/tie
- CIN loss/tie + JAX loss/tie
- CIN loss/tie + IND loss/tie + HOU loss/tie
A tie would result in even more scenarios largely relying on losses by the Steelers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans and Colts in varying combinations.
AFC elimination scenarios for Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Raiders, Broncos
Steelers elimination scenarios
- Loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + HOU win + DEN loss/tie
- Loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + HOU win + JAX loss + KC win/tie
- Loss + BUF win/tie + IND win/tie JAX win + DEN loss/tie
Bengals elimination scenarios
- Loss + PIT win + BUF win/tie
Texans elimination scenarios
- Loss + IND win + JAX win + BUF win/tie
- Loss + IND win + JAX win + CIN win + PIT loss/tie + DEN loss/tie
Raiders elimination scenarios
- Loss
- Tie + JAX win
- Tie + PIT win
- Tie + CIN win
- Tie + JAX loss + HOUR win + CIN/PIT tie + large combination of results
Broncos elimination scenarios
- Loss
- Tie + JAX win/tie
- Tie + IND win/tie + HOU win/tie
- Tie + PIT win/tie
- Tie + CIN win
- KC win/tie + BUF win/tie + PIT win
- KC win/tie + BUF win/tie + HOU win + IND win + JAX loss/tie
- KC win/tie + HOU win + IND win + JAX loss/tie + PIT win